ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 110945
SPC AC 110945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week
with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic
flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a
negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern
CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and
perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this
shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical
shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible.
Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great
Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid
MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some
timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the
overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and
model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the
one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley
into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist
and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing
system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed
within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any
threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities
will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook.
I agree. A few days ago the "Saturday Night/Sunday" system looked much more impressive than it does now. Of course, we're still 4+ days away. We tend to get a lot of "surprises" this time of year. We shall see.Looking like a nonzero chance at severe weather this Saturday night/Sunday. Instability is quite marginal at the time being.
Yep, it occludes much sooner now taking a lot of the energy well north. Another system od note might the New Years Eve/Day system. Very potent looking.I agree. A few days ago the "Saturday Night/Sunday" system looked much more impressive than it does now. Of course, we're still 4+ days away. We tend to get a lot of "surprises" this time of year. We shall see.