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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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Looks like they have allowed the warning to expire.
 
Although not strictly severe weather related, the balloons at this year’s Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade will fly after all but at ground level due to strong winds. Meanwhile, Saturday night’s Texas A&M at LSU game might get interesting with a risk of severe thunderstorms over most of Louisiana.
 
C72FCC90-5F2C-420E-950E-986560E1E6AE.jpeg
 
What timeframe?
 
I'd be okay with the 00z run too, at least it would be in diving distance. Hopefully my son can see his first snow this season
 
What timeframe? Please, can we not just post vague references? When on the 0z run?
 
This time period has come in more suppressed. A couple of runs showed a big system at the end of this week, but the 5-7 day pattern has been quite volatile and it backed off significantly.
 
Watch next Monday. Models have been ramping up the threat.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 110945
SPC AC 110945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week
with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic
flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a
negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern
CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and
perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this
shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical
shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible.

Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great
Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid
MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some
timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the
overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and
model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the
one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley
into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist
and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing
system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed
within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any
threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities
will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2019
Click to expand...
 
Kory said:
Looking like a nonzero chance at severe weather this Saturday night/Sunday. Instability is quite marginal at the time being.
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I agree. A few days ago the "Saturday Night/Sunday" system looked much more impressive than it does now. Of course, we're still 4+ days away. We tend to get a lot of "surprises" this time of year. We shall see.
 
Jonathan Burleson said:
I agree. A few days ago the "Saturday Night/Sunday" system looked much more impressive than it does now. Of course, we're still 4+ days away. We tend to get a lot of "surprises" this time of year. We shall see.
Click to expand...
Yep, it occludes much sooner now taking a lot of the energy well north. Another system od note might the New Years Eve/Day system. Very potent looking.
 
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