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Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%

  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%

  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
Looking at the models for the rest of this month (April) - looks like Oklahoma may break a very longstanding record. The latest the state has ever gone into a new year without a verified tornado is April 26.

The NWS is reporting no tornadoes in the state of Oklahoma so far in 2018
(source: https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-2018), & unless something changes quickly the state will keep the streak going into the month of May.

This is pretty significant.

I imagine the chaser tour folks out there are beside themselves as well as all their customers who have taken vacation weeks off to tour. Guess they can always chase wildfires.


upload_2018-4-18_14-59-46.png
 
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I saw where they are predicting a warmer than average May for the majority of the country and wetter than average for the southeast. Obviously that doesn’t mean severe weather but I’d assume it’d mean an active period. My experience living in North Alabama is that severe season tends to fade mid month as we head toward summer. The May 5th 1995 Anderson Hills tornado is one of the later events I can remember.
 
Weatherphreak said:
I saw where they are predicting a warmer than average May for the majority of the country and wetter than average for the southeast. Obviously that doesn’t mean severe weather but I’d assume it’d mean an active period. My experience living in North Alabama is that severe season tends to fade mid month as we head toward summer. The May 5th 1995 Anderson Hills tornado is one of the later events I can remember.
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If I can nitpick, it was May 18, 1995. Hazel Green was also hit on May 11th?, 1995 and May 26/27, 2011.

You are definitely correct in that history is not on the side of a completely quiet may
 
The May 27 1973 Brent-Centreville event always intrigued me, being an event so far south in central AL so close to June. Won't let my guard down just in case obviously, but we will see.
 
Oh yeah, I'd forgotten the risk came that far south that day. I do remember following the outbreak that day pretty well, after seeing all the destruction across Oklahoma. April/May 2011 were outright absurd.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
west tn was under a high risk day as late as may 25 that was the famous 2011 year course...
Click to expand...

On May 30, 2004, western Tennessee not only had a High Risk... but northwestern Tennessee had 35% hatched tornado probabilities on the 20Z Day 1 outlook, which would be the operational equivalent to 45% hatched tornado probabilities after the rescaling they did several years ago.
 
Fred Gossage said:
On May 30, 2004, western Tennessee not only had a High Risk... but northwestern Tennessee had 35% hatched tornado probabilities on the 20Z Day 1 outlook, which would be the operational equivalent to 45% hatched tornado probabilities after the rescaling they did several years ago.
Click to expand...
i had totally forgot about that threat... great reminder....
 
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