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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

trency911
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:21 PM

Another thing interesting, correct me if I'm wrong, but April 6-7 outbreak was the last time there was high risk on back to back days.
 
Blizzard1
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:26 PM

WOW! The BMX HWO says it all for their view of Wednesday...now if only we could get a big 5 for snow in the winter, that would be cool!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=hwo
Edited by Blizzard1, 25 April 2011 - 03:28 PM.

 
bingcrosbyb
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:29 PM

Wow. PDS Watch out. 60% chance of F2-F5. Goodness.

ww0205radarinit.gif

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 202...WW
203...WW 204...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STRONG/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR.
FAVORABLE AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH A
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF TORNADOES
/SOME STRONG/ AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
Click to expand...

Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 04:47 PM.
 
jpk1292000
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:38 PM

Storms in east Texas look ferocious! It's the start of a very long and dangerous 84 hour period for a large part of the eastern US.
 
gawxnative
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:49 PM

Looking like debris ball with Texas cell south of KFWS site..WFAA has been streaming live on it..

 
Harlequhn_Boy
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:57 PM

trency911, on 25 April 2011 - 03:21 PM, said:

Another thing interesting, correct me if I'm wrong, but April 6-7 outbreak was the last time there was high risk on back to back days.
Click to expand...


No. April 30 and May 1, 2010 were back to back High Risk days in AR and the Mid South. This occurred simultaneously with the May Floods.
 
djbarker
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:57 PM

Anyone else amazed by how chic "debris ball" has become in severe weather terminology? I think I heard it for the first time last year with the Yazoo City tornado (I know the phenomenon was documented before then, though) and now it seems to be common vernacular.
 
Tyler Penland
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:59 PM

Well, we have a mini squall line here in NE GA. Winds aren't too bad but cloud to ground lightning and extremely heavy precip are common.
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:03 PM

should see some active weather later as these supercells in Texas are Arkansas and Louisiana bound.In factconditions for tornadoes are better here than in Texas atm....
 
trency911
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:07 PM

Harlequhn_Boy, on 25 April 2011 - 03:57 PM, said:

No. April 30 and May 1, 2010 were back to back High Risk days in AR and the Mid South. This occurred simultaneously with the May Floods.
Click to expand...


Okay thanks the change of month threw me off when I looked.
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:11 PM

Is the texas storm still showing a debris ball?
 
Charles Loring
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:22 PM

Possible tornado near Pembroke, KY...we have had severe weather two days in a row, and tomorrow and Wednesday (the worst) has yet to arrive. My studies will suffer greatly the first portion of this week...
 
wxfan22
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:28 PM

West TN and North MS better watch out tonight....The storms in Arkansas should have no problem holding together although they should become increasingly more linear. Ample sunshine has let temps approach the mid 80's with surface based capes around 2500. Could be a significant wind damage threat.
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:39 PM

I don't see them becoming more linear as conditions are better tornado wise here than in Texas hense the PDS watch...Im not sure they would issue a PDS watch for linear storms....as i don't see them becoming linear at least not till late tonight...
Edited by mwbwhorton, 25 April 2011 - 04:40 PM.

 
wxfan22
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:44 PM

mwbwhorton, on 25 April 2011 - 04:39 PM, said:

I don't see them becoming more linear as conditions are better tornado wise here than in Texas hense the PDS watch...Im not sure they would issue a PDS watch for linear storms....as i don't see them becoming linear at least not till late tonight...
Click to expand...


I was referring to locations east of the PDS watch. Across the river into TN and MS late tonight.
 
MichelleH
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:50 PM

Looks like North MS may see a tornado watch soon:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MS...ERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN
IL...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA...EXTREME WRN KY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252134Z - 252230Z

ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY ACROSS MS VALLEY REGION E AND NE OF WW 205.

SVR TSTMS OVER NERN PORTIONS AR IN WW 205 MAY BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVE NEWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES NRN EXTENT OF FAVORABLE/SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
INFLOW...GIVEN ROBUST STRENGTH OF COLD POOL OVER MO OZARKS AND
LIMITED TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION TO ITS E. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
SRN EDGE OF THAT COLD POOL FROM NEAR FLP NEWD ACROSS CARTER COUNTY
MO THEN NWD TOWARD SWRN FRINGES STL AREA...E OF WHICH 3-4 MB/2-HOUR
FALLS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR REGION. THIS TENDENCY IS
CONSISTENT WITH SFC LOW SHIFT/DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO REGION...WHILE
RELATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS AND
ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUITABLE ALSO...WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 45-55 KT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...N OF
WHICH HODOGRAPHS ARE FURTHER ENLARGED...WAS ANALYZED FROM WRN KY MCS
SWWD ACROSS MEM AREA THEN NWWD OVER NERN AR. HOWEVER...SFC DIABATIC
HEATING IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO ITS N SUCH THAT 500-1500 MLCAPE
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY BEFORE SUNSET.
WAA WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...
 
MichelleH
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:54 PM

OK, they've issued it and it's a PDS watch! Goes until midnight.
 
SWL
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:55 PM


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 450 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:57 PM

MichelleH, on 25 April 2011 - 04:54 PM, said:

OK, they've issued it and it's a PDS watch! Goes until midnight.
Click to expand...

Yep most of Arkansas and now northern mississippi and western tennessee are in a dangerous situation be on the lookout for supercells and tornadoes in these areas....
 
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