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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

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First look at the composite data from NAMNST for this event. I'm pretty concerned with what I'm seeing, particuarly because for the longest time it's felt like it's undersold so many past severe weather events (including 3/14). The fact that it's verifying it to this extent concerns me. I don't know, maybe I'm overreacting. Just my thoughts.
 
cincywx said:
ILN doesn't sound overly concerned for the cincinnati area either. however, the later in the night sunday that storms arrive, the less likely it is that they'll have anything to work with.I remember the F4s in Dayton being a slight day with a similar curve. very few people were even aware there was the chance for severe weather that day but you could feel it.
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I remember the F4s in Dayton being a slight day with a similar curve. A lot of people didn’t realize there was chance for severe weather that day but you could feel it.
 
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0z HRRR incoming in what, about 60-90 minutes? *waits anxiously* Meanwhile, my WRF-ARW model is taking its dear sweet time (it has like 6 million grid points to calculate, so give my computer a break lol), so I don't think it'll be done til midnight or 1 AM. I'll try to stay up to share the results when it comes out, just FYI.
 
wx_guy said:
0z HRRR incoming in what, about 60-90 minutes? *waits anxiously* Meanwhile, my WRF-ARW model is taking its dear sweet time (it has like 6 million grid points to calculate, so give my computer a break lol), so I don't think it'll be done til midnight or 1 AM. I'll try to stay up to share the results when it comes out, just FYI.
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Your computer watching you prepare another run.
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wx_guy said:
0z HRRR incoming in what, about 60-90 minutes? *waits anxiously* Meanwhile, my WRF-ARW model is taking its dear sweet time (it has like 6 million grid points to calculate, so give my computer a break lol), so I don't think it'll be done til midnight or 1 AM. I'll try to stay up to share the results when it comes out, just FYI.
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Are the rumors true that you run your model just to cook briskets on your computer?
(Just confirming something here guys)
 
cg9450 said:
Lord knows the line doesn't need to get any kinkier.
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Some very impressive values off the 18Z GEFS for Sunday evening. Additionally, some very impressive SRH off the 18Z NAM for Alabama and Georgia on Monday. With instability being all but certain, the amount of kinematics that may be in place strike me as particularly concerning.
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Clancy said:
Some very impressive values off the 18Z GEFS for Sunday evening. Additionally, some very impressive SRH off the 18Z NAM for Alabama and Georgia on Monday. With instability being all but certain, the amount of kinematics that may be in place strike me as particularly concerning.
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Agreed. With kinematics falling in, Biggest question may move to storm mode now. Regardless, that instability is stunning
 
00z HRRR valid at 7pm Sunday. If that cap breaks earlier, we're gonna have trouble.
 

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Bulkshear said:
Mid 60’s to 70 dew points, sufficient shear, what could go wrong? Seriously though do you think the cap will hold or is this looking more ominous
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Hard to tell at this time how early it breaks. However, I believe that by that timeframe, it should be starting to give way or have already broken. I mean by 7pm, you would have already had a days worth of heating adding more fuel to an already volatile environment
 
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