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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

wx_guy said:
Hey all, I'm preparing to run a 1 km ultra high resolution run so we can see things like Updraft Helicity cores and things like that (you can't really do that at 9 km resolution, it all just smears together and loses information). But because 1 km has soooo many grid points, it's impossible to do over a large area. So I'm really curious -- what area do you think would be best to center the run on? It'll probably be 200 miles square max at the most because I don't want it to run for days. I understand you may want it centered over your neighborhood, but realistically, where is the best place to center it to capture the most useful data? I'm thinking either Nashville, Birmingham, or Memphis (I've focused on those a lot lately!), but any other ideas? Consensus?
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Memphis.
 
wx_guy said:
Hey all, I'm preparing to run a 1 km ultra high resolution run so we can see things like Updraft Helicity cores and things like that (you can't really do that at 9 km resolution, it all just smears together and loses information). But because 1 km has soooo many grid points, it's impossible to do over a large area. So I'm really curious -- what area do you think would be best to center the run on? It'll probably be 200 miles square max at the most because I don't want it to run for days. I understand you may want it centered over your neighborhood, but realistically, where is the best place to center it to capture the most useful data? I'm thinking either Nashville, Birmingham, or Memphis (I've focused on those a lot lately!), but any other ideas? Consensus?
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@wx_guy, please consider Jonesboro, AR or Popular Bluff, MO
 
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18Z NAM significantly more concerning for MS, AL and perhaps GA on Sunday. High instability, decent mid-level LRs and, as @UncleJuJu98 mentioned, some pretty hefty SRH ahead of what looks like a linear situation. Of course, NAM loves to make things linear, so could be more broken up than that. Either way, while there's a lot of questions and model spread, the potential for a considerable threat across the core of the Southeast is clearly there Sunday.
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Clancy said:
18Z NAM significantly more concerning for MS, AL and perhaps GA on Sunday. High instability, decent mid-level LRs and, as @UncleJuJu98 mentioned, some pretty hefty SRH ahead of what looks like a linear situation. Of course, NAM loves to make things linear, so could be more broken up than that. Either way, while there's a lot of questions and model spread, the potential for a considerable threat across the core of the Southeast is clearly there Sunday.
View attachment 37560View attachment 37561View attachment 37562View attachment 37563View attachment 37565View attachment 37566
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Didn't know the NAM had a linear bias. Wonder if it leans more towards the EURO, in that the line would be kinky or even broken as we get closer into the 48 hour range.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Didn't know the NAM had a linear bias. Wonder if it leans more towards the EURO, in that the line would be kinky or even broken as we get closer into the 48 hour range.
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Lord knows the line doesn't need to get any kinkier.
Animated GIF
 
Thanks for the input everyone! I did consider Arkansas and Missouri, but that'd leave out some of the action in Alabama. I decided on Memphis that should seep into Arkansas and Missouri as well and give a good centralized view of where things are at. We'll see in a few hours!

The 18z GFS is starting to roll in, wonder what it'll say! And CAM's coming into focus with the 18z and 0z runs, right?
 
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