Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

[Richardjacks]

I am finally getting a chance to catch up on Thursday. I keep thinking the NAM us up to its normal antics but the euro has my eye as well. One thing for sure, this one is different than the last.

 

[MQATLSNOW]

I am finally getting a chance to catch up on Thursday. I keep thinking the NAM us up to its normal antics but the global models but euro has my eye as well. One thing for sure, this one is different than the last.

No wedge to be found and stronger LLJ spells alot of trouble! Let see how this plays out!

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

12Z HRRR is showing a strong EML over the region during the morning hours.

 

[Fred Gossage]

12z HRRR, WRFs, and NAM/3k-NAM are starting to cast serious doubt on the idea of an MCS that truncates the warm sector southward...

 

[Whyrob1998]

m still getting into this but it looks more robust. I'll bet there will be another High-risk with this one.. STP 4-5 in spots, still day 3 so much to iron out but that's higher than last week. But also a late evening overnight risk for Alabama?? looks like all the action will be southern Central MS will be during the day

 

[Fred Gossage]

The ARW has a morning MCS, but it is already moving across north AL at daybreak with capping building in behind it. It is also the only CAM that goes out this far that has anything remotely close to that. The rest have a northeastward moving batch of showers.

It moves from dead central MS to there in three hours. Extrapolating out that forward motion, if it didn't slow down, it would be clear of all of Alabama and middle TN by 15z with capping moving in behind it.

 

[Jpgood97]

Feel like I see Reed post this almost every event

 

[Jpgood97]

I can’t get the photo to upload, but it’s his typical tornado outbreak potential graphic

 

[Marshal79344]

This event is again giving me knots in my stomach out of fear. Models are depicting a much more dynamic system than what we had on March 17th, while maintaining similar kinematics. To see model consensus on quite a large area of 50+ kt flow as early as 18z is extremely concerning. To see that flow gradually increase to over 60 kts by 00z is just plain out scary. Not surprised at all at the models depicting a messy scenario on reflectivity. The CAM's have always had issues with properly resolving convection in moist environments such as this one.

 

[Marshal79344]

This event is again giving me knots in my stomach out of fear. Models are depicting a much more dynamic system than what we had on March 17th, while maintaining similar kinematics. To see model consensus on quite a large area of 50+ kt flow as early as 18z is extremely concerning. To see that flow gradually increase to over 60 kts by 00z is just plain out scary. Not surprised at all at the models depicting a messy scenario on reflectivity. The CAM's have always had issues with properly resolving convection in moist environments such as this one.

I've seen a lot of talk about how the lower-level lapse rates are bad but it's just common in these moist environments. I've seen countless examples of Dixie supercells surrounded by rain produce intense - violent tornadoes before. Given the dynamics we have at play, going back to the convection resolving issue, anything that forms is going to go supercellular very quickly.

 

[andyhb]

12z GFS coming in with a deeper wave, clearing in the low/mid levels during the morning, and more northward extent to the warm sector. That’s a problem.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I've seen a lot of talk about how the lower-level lapse rates are bad but it's just common in these moist environments. I've seen countless examples of Dixie supercells surrounded by rain produce intense - violent tornadoes before. Given the dynamics we have at play, going back to the convection resolving issue, anything that forms is going to go supercellular very quickly.

One such example that stands out in my mind is the one that produced the killer EF3 in southern Tennesee on April 28, 2014.

Tornado outbreak of April 27–30, 2014 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Marshal79344]

One such example that stands out in my mind is the one that produced the killer EF3 in southern Tennesee on April 28, 2014.

Tornado outbreak of April 27–30, 2014 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That was exactly what I had in my mind as well

 

[Equus]

GFS trend is definitely toward a much larger spatial extent, this is not trending in a pleasant direction

 

[JayF]

I went ahead and added the Severe weather Tag. Get the word out everyone. While we hope and pray for the safety of everyone, we just never know how these things are really going to turn out. But by all appearances, this looks like a rough day on Thursday. Stay #Weatheraware everyone.

 

[andyhb]

Holy friggin crap @ that 12z UK run.

 

[Jpgood97]

 

[Fred Gossage]

12z GFS coming in with a deeper wave, clearing in the low/mid levels during the morning, and more northward extent to the warm sector. That’s a problem.

The GFS has been the most truncated with the warm sector the whole time and now gets 70/65 and 800+ SBCAPE to Nashville. That says everything...

 

[Marshal79344]

I seriously hope that the UKMET is incorrect about the intensity of the low

 

[Clancy]

I seriously hope that the UKMET is incorrect about the intensity of the low

View attachment 7339View attachment 7340

If that run were to be the case then *everyone* east of the Mississippi and west of the Carolinas in the SE would have to be wary.