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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

buckeye05 said:
I see I didn’t miss too much today lol. Glad there haven’t been any fatalities. Looks like some pretty intense damage did occur in Chilton County, AL though.

Outbreak isn’t over until late tomorrow night into the morning after, however. Sometimes the east coast, “day 2” portion of a Dixie outbreak is more potent than expected. We’ll just have to see.
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That was certainly the case for e.g. 4/16/11.
 
Justin Hindman said:
I believe three problems kept this from being a lot worse.
1. timing. The squall line was suppose to move through Birmingham around 2 am and it’s coming through around 9:30
2, a lot more storms popped up today and earlier than expected, so the atmosphere didn’t get as juiced as it could have.
3. the low level jet didn’t come in on time since the storms were way ahead of schedule.

Still a very bad day, but we are fortunate and it could of been much worse. It’s still not over, but I’m happy that it wasn’t as bad as expected for most.
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The spring is still young. I fear that we will get hammered in a couple of weeks when we aren't prepared/expecting it. But my birds will like going back into their normal cages instead of in the small ones with which we shelter inside the hall closet.
 
HRRR is still showing some nasty stuff developing near the AL/GA border, so I definitely wouldn't count those areas out for some nighttime tornadoes.
 
I think two things can be true at once about today. It wasn't a full on Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, but it clearly didn't live up to expectations. Seeing as I've been watching from 3 states away while all my family is in the Trussville area, I'm quite relieved that everybody looks like they'll be able to get some sleep tonight.
 
sak said:
Does that really try and form a bunch of new isolated storms west of the current QLCS? I'll be absolutely stunned if that happens.

I see no reason to keep a tornado watch posted anywhere northwest of I-59 at this point from New Orleans all the way to Chattanooga. I guess if the HRRR verifies then maybe...?
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Seemed like SPC was using HRRR as a reference for some of their guidance. Also, yes, in the last several runs it has formed cells with some pretty notable UH streaks. Not saying that will happen, obviously, just noting it.
 
Longtime lurker here; been monitoring all day. I can report that the warm front finally made it north of the Shoals area. At 6 PM, our temp was 60 deg. As the line passed through, it peaked at 79 deg at 8:43 PM. At 9:35, it is 71 deg.
 
Bama Ravens said:
Does anyone think there is truly a chance of storms developing behind the QLCS? I mean, I just read a post by one local met that said the risk is over once the QLCS passes your location.
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The Birmingham NWS has canceled the TW just west of I-65. I think we will have more threat than expected, but from heavy rain.
 
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