Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[warneagle]

I see I didn’t miss too much today lol. Glad there haven’t been any fatalities. Looks like some pretty intense damage did occur in Chilton County, AL though.

Outbreak isn’t over until late tomorrow night into the morning after, however. Sometimes the east coast, “day 2” portion of a Dixie outbreak is more potent than expected. We’ll just have to see.

That was certainly the case for e.g. 4/16/11.

 

[brianc33710]

I believe three problems kept this from being a lot worse.
1. timing. The squall line was suppose to move through Birmingham around 2 am and it’s coming through around 9:30
2, a lot more storms popped up today and earlier than expected, so the atmosphere didn’t get as juiced as it could have.
3. the low level jet didn’t come in on time since the storms were way ahead of schedule.

Still a very bad day, but we are fortunate and it could of been much worse. It’s still not over, but I’m happy that it wasn’t as bad as expected for most.

The spring is still young. I fear that we will get hammered in a couple of weeks when we aren't prepared/expecting it. But my birds will like going back into their normal cages instead of in the small ones with which we shelter inside the hall closet.

 

[brianc33710]

Interesting.....TWC just remarked about how the "wedge" seems to protect Atlanta from many of the tornadoes that hit Birmingham.

 

[Evan]

Don't think the LLJ is going to catch up to the line until east of I-65. I've seen this movie before.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Don't think the LLJ is going to catch up to the line until east of I-65. I've seen this movie before.

What do you mean by that?

 

[Clancy]

HRRR is still showing some nasty stuff developing near the AL/GA border, so I definitely wouldn't count those areas out for some nighttime tornadoes.

 

[Argus]

It is down to 54 with a dp 53 at 10:25 PM.

 

[KevinH]

HRRR is still showing some nasty stuff developing near the AL/GA border, so I definitely wouldn't count those areas out for some nighttime tornadoes.

What parameter on the HRRR were you looking at?

 

[Jacob]

I think two things can be true at once about today. It wasn't a full on bust, but it clearly didn't live up to expectations. Seeing as I've been watching from 3 states away while all my family is in the Trussville area, I'm quite relieved that everybody looks like they'll be able to get some sleep tonight.

 

[Clancy]

What parameter on the HRRR were you looking at?

 

[KevinH]

View attachment 7147

Oh... "Round 3". Gotcha.

I am going to bed until then. gnight everyone lol

 

[sak]

View attachment 7147

Does that really try and form a bunch of new isolated storms west of the current QLCS back in eastern MS? I'll be absolutely stunned if that happens.

I see no reason to keep a tornado watch posted anywhere northwest of I-59 at this point from New Orleans all the way to Chattanooga. I guess if the HRRR verifies then maybe...?

 

[brianc33710]

24 April 2010 surprised us when we thought it was done though

 

[Clancy]

Does that really try and form a bunch of new isolated storms west of the current QLCS? I'll be absolutely stunned if that happens.

I see no reason to keep a tornado watch posted anywhere northwest of I-59 at this point from New Orleans all the way to Chattanooga. I guess if the HRRR verifies then maybe...?

Seemed like SPC was using HRRR as a reference for some of their guidance. Also, yes, in the last several runs it has formed cells with some pretty notable UH streaks. Not saying that will happen, obviously, just noting it.

 

[pscampbe]

Longtime lurker here; been monitoring all day. I can report that the warm front finally made it north of the Shoals area. At 6 PM, our temp was 60 deg. As the line passed through, it peaked at 79 deg at 8:43 PM. At 9:35, it is 71 deg.

 

[RollTide18]

Is it me or is the line trying to bow out?

 

[MQATLSNOW]

Is it me or is the line trying to bow out?

It is becoming linear also.

 

[speedbump305]

I’m gonna go to bed. I’ll check on the warnings tomorrow. i’m sure we will get some insane damage photos tomorrow and insane radar images. tomorrow the outbreak continues

 

[Bama Ravens]

Does anyone think there is truly a chance of storms developing behind the QLCS? I mean, I just read a post by one local met that said the risk is over once the QLCS passes your location. NWS is also clearing counties west of the QLCS from the watch.

 

[brianc33710]

Does anyone think there is truly a chance of storms developing behind the QLCS? I mean, I just read a post by one local met that said the risk is over once the QLCS passes your location.

The Birmingham NWS has canceled the TW just west of I-65. I think we will have more threat than expected, but from heavy rain.