Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[Casie]

That's what models look like they're showing, is this going to be like the Easter Outbreak and have overcast skies?

I don't believe so. I think we will see a break in the clouds during the late morning, at least for my area around the 'Ham.

 

[Casie]

I’ve seen you reference this EF4 event before and I’m confused as to what you’re referring to? The only significant tornado to strike those towns in relatively recent memory was an EF2 in November of 2012.

Are you referring to the Beauregard/Smiths Station EF4?

I think so. I don't remember an EF4 hitting Auburn/Opelika in even distant history?

 

[Brice]

I think so. I don't remember an EF4 hitting Auburn/Opelika in even distant history?

I think he is referring to the Beauregard tornado since that tornado did indeed come close to auburn

 

[Brice]

New outlook is coming in soon

 

[Casuarina Head]

There's been a shift in the HRRR once we got past the 00z run, and it's like a switch got flipped. This is the third consecutive run with a more progressive warm front, a more pristine EML that advects in at midday, and cleaner-looking mid-afternoon warm sector cells.

This may be a stupid question, but is the 00Z suite typically given more weight than 06Z, as it is with global models?

Edit: I noticed that the HIGH Risk is relatively constricted and the MDT was not expanded farther N into TN.

 

[Equus]

High risk out

 

[WhirlingWx]

It's gonna be a long 24 (or 48) hours...

 

[Casie]

High risk out

View attachment 7008

 

[Brice]

I haven't been this concerned since 5/20/19

 

[Casie]

That's a rather large high risk area!

 

[Brice]

Central Mississippi, please, please be safe, this as serious as it gets.

 

[akt1985]

It looks like the high risk is mainly centered on central Mississippi and not so much into Alabama.

 

[Brice]

SPC hasn't updated the outlook

 

[KoD]

I guess I can sleep now, I certainly won't be tomorrow night.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I haven't been this concerned since 5/20/19

Honestly if it hadn't been for that unusually persistent cap, 5/20/19 could have easily rivaled 5/24/11. It just goes to show you that for all our advanced prediction methods, we really don't know how an event is going to play out until it happens.

 

[Equus]

 

[Brice]

Honestly if it hadn't been for that unusually persistent cap, 5/20/19 could have easily rivaled 5/24/11. It just goes to show you that for all our advanced prediction methods, we really don't know how an event is going to play out until it happens.

True, but I don't think there will be anything stopping this system sadly

 

[Julian]

It looks like the placement of the high risk is based on the ensemble of CAM’s that Fred posted earlier.

 

[Casuarina Head]

It looks like the placement of the high risk is based on the ensemble of CAM’s that Fred posted earlier.

It also appears to be predicated on the first wave of discrete development ahead of the secondary line. Otherwise it would have been larger.

The last HIGH Risk occurred 667 days ago...too close to “666” for comfort.

 

[Brice]

It looks like the placement of the high risk is based on the ensemble of CAM’s that Fred posted earlier.

Someone give Fred a pot of gold he deserves it