• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
  • April 2024 Weather Video of the Month
    Post your nominations now!
Logo 468x120

Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

Equus

Equus

Member
Messages
3,346
Reaction score
3,532
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
New outlook is in an hour. Need sleep, but it's an unforgivable sin to not stay up for the first D1 on an outbreak day lol
 
brianc33710

brianc33710

Member
Messages
351
Reaction score
215
Location
Central Alabama
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
CSimonds said:
I hope this doesn’t comes across as total noob....but I keep wondering about the CAD. I have looked at the temp and DP differences in N and NE AL vs NE MS, NW AL and central AL. Right now it is a chilly 53 in Guntersville with a DP of 52. The temps and DP in the western part of the state are 10-15 degrees warmer. The reason I keep focusing on the CAD is due to several instances where the CAD hung on tougher than the models had forecasted. I’m not good with historical dates and maybe someone can remember them for me. One instance was where the setup was somewhat similar- the warm front was forecasted to move into middle TN. Instead the warm front stalled around a line from NW AL through Birmingham and down through east central AL. That might have been the day of the Leesburg tornado (?). Another time was very similar, warm front never made it north of Marion county-Cullman-Boaz and that might have been either the Boaz or the Jacksonville tornado (?) But in any case, I’ve seen many forecasts for higher end days not verify for the N and NE part of the state due to the CAD and messy convection. Could we possibly stay at a moderate risk because of those questions? (Again, apologies if I didn’t use correct terminology due to noobism)
Click to expand...
I remember feeling this way last Easter when the dewpoints were in the 40s the night before but we still had forecast severe weather the next day. When the warm front moved thru the airmass changed almost instantly, although maybe the amount of advection required did keep the outbreak from being even worse.
 
TalkWeather Members Do Not See This Ad - JOIN TODAY
TalkWeather Members Do Not See This Ad - JOIN TODAY
Equus

Equus

Member
Messages
3,346
Reaction score
3,532
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Ha! I love it. Forgot that was today. Gotta wear green if chasing today for sure
 
C

CSimonds

Member
Messages
45
Reaction score
42
Location
Guntersville, AL
brianc33710 said:
I remember feeling this way last Easter when the dewpoints were in the 40s the night before but we still had forecast severe weather the next day. When the warm front moved thru the airmass changed almost instantly, although maybe the amount of advection required did keep the outbreak from being even worse.
Click to expand...
One of the Albertville tornadoes was that way. It was chilly and rainy the entire day. The “big event” remained far to the south (I believe that was the day of the big Yazoo monster). The atmosphere was pretty stable so we decided to go to dinner (in Guntersville). When we went into the restaurant it was chilly. While they brought out our dinner we looked out the window and saw a lot of lightning to the south. Then my cell rang and it was my dad asking if we were watching the tornado warned storm headed in our general direction. I was like, “huh?” So we got our food to go and when we stepped outside it was a completely different atmosphere. Just like that - in less than an hour it went from chilly to “that feeling.” Warm, humid, heavy air. By the time we got home the lightning was like a strobe and the spooky talking sirens were going off. It was amazing how fast the atmosphere changed.
 
TalkWeather Members Do Not See This Ad - JOIN TODAY
TalkWeather Members Do Not See This Ad - JOIN TODAY
SilentShadow87

SilentShadow87

Member
Messages
630
Reaction score
472
Location
St. Catharines, Ontario
Fred Gossage said:
The way it works these days, especially on social media, you could hand them a 1974/2011/1932 hybrid on a silver platter, and they would still do that.
Click to expand...
Yeah honestly it confuses me. The disagreement between the models is pretty minor and this is definitely going to be a high ceiling event. But yeah I guarantee there will be people calling bust by noon.
 
TalkWeather Members Do Not See This Ad - JOIN TODAY
TalkWeather Members Do Not See This Ad - JOIN TODAY
buckeye05

buckeye05

Member
Messages
3,354
Reaction score
5,215
Location
Colorado
brianc33710 said:
The SPC has been stingy with the "High" risks since the May 2019 TX/OK outbreak underperformed. Before that they had waited 2 years too. The SPC issued the PDS Tornado Watch the day of the Auburn/Opelika EF-4 but I guess they're afraid of crying wolf & things not get that bad.

In terms of what could happen, would the 24 April 2010 outbreak compare here @Fred Gossage ? That had 9 EF-2s, 4-3s & 2 4s.
Click to expand...
I’ve seen you reference this EF4 event before and I’m confused as to what you’re referring to? The only significant tornado to strike those towns in relatively recent memory was an EF2 in November of 2012.

Are you referring to the Beauregard/Smiths Station EF4?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top