Marshal79344
Member
It's another term for the models, such as HRRR/RAP/NAM 3K/etc
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Convection Allowing Models. The high res models like HRRR, 3km NAM, the WRFs, the broadcast high res models you see on TV, etc.
CheeselandSkies
Member
In my non-professional opinion, at this point I don't see enough confidence in widespread, sustained tornadic supercells to warrant an upgrade to high risk, especially with the uncertainty due to hodographs not really becoming stellar until the LLJ ramps up late. That said, I could easily see a situation where a seemingly innocuous-looking storm, perhaps embedded in a QLCS or a line that "splits up" into supercells, abruptly changes character and produces a strong to violent tornado or two, probably after dark or even deep into the overnight hours.
Just because it won't be a 4/27 or even a Super Tuesday '08 or similar doesn't mean there isn't potential for some very dangerous storms tomorrow and/or tomorrow night.
Just because it won't be a 4/27 or even a Super Tuesday '08 or similar doesn't mean there isn't potential for some very dangerous storms tomorrow and/or tomorrow night.
The verification of a possible High Risk caliber event, and the D2 today that hinted at a possible HIGH coming, never hinged upon what may happen in the afternoon. Even at face value in that outlook itself, it was made clear that the potential for what they may trigger a HIGH on would be the evening and overnight activity.
cheestaysfly
Member
I'm so nervous about tomorrow. I'm in Florence and there's some scary looking storms heading directly over us all day.
Snowyfbaby
Member
In sumiton Alabama here and also nervous.
brianc33710
Member
I noticed a change in the Birmingham NWS HWO tonight. This morning the "enhanced" sections had hail up to quarter size & "moderate" had hail up to golf ball size. Tonight, Bham has increased enhanced to golf ball size & moderate to tennis ball size. Thats some big hail.
gangstonc
Member
It’s ok to be nervous, but just make sure you are prepared. Have some water, snacks, cash, flashlights, and a safe place to be. That will ease your mind a lot.
cheestaysfly
Member
Thank you! I have all of those things but I'm still so scared. You guys are all amazing here, thanks for everything y'all do. It really helps noobs like me.
And here we go....
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 188
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
If you don't follow us already, stay with us at the Tennessee Valley Weather Channel tomorrow. You can find us on Facebook by the link in my signature, on our website at tnvalleyweather.com, on YouTube by searching for Tennessee Valley Weather, and you can download our free app by searching for Tennessee Valley Weather in your app store. We are based out of Lawrenceburg at WLX Radio, and we provide a local focus on northwest Alabama, southern Tennessee, and northeast Mississippi. We will provide live non-stop team coverage tomorrow and tomorrow night for any tornado warnings in the area.
MikeP
Member
So thoughts on a true 'Red Letter'day? Kory, Fred, Andy, etc. Gut instincts and personal feelings for tomorrow across MS/AL? Throw the models out at this point. What do you guys think we are really up against?
I don't like to commit to phrases like that because of the way it gets interpreted in this post-4/27 world, but I will put it this way. If I was the SPC forecaster on desk tonight, I would be drawing a 6z Day 1 High Risk over the northern 2/3 of Mississippi and Alabama, northward into the Highway 64 counties of southern middle and southwestern Tennessee. A little bit of that is a similar situation to where a local WFO may put a winter storm warning out when they are still slightly uncertain about a true face value statistical verification, but they are doing it because of the conditional danger and from the public awareness standpoint, but the vast majority of the decision there comes from the thought process after taking the consensus of how the CAMs evolve a "baseline" scenario for this and then stepping back and looking at the actual meteorology of the setup outside of the CAMs, there is too much of a risk of multiple long-track EF3+ tornadoes to not go ahead and pull the trigger, imo.
0z HREF has more UH tracks in Alabama during the afternoon with slightly higher STP than the 12z run. That may be enough to get them to pull the trigger on a high risk knowing that it supports a potent 2 rounds of tornadic storms.
Justin Hindman
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Lots of red letter days, I consider April 27 a black weather day with a lot of tornadoes and death. I have a strange feeling they will go high probably noon tomorrow or 7 am
Bamamuscle
Member
Thoughts?
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If we're gonna mess with those phrases, that's a good way of looking at it.
Despite this, the overall consensus with all of the high-res guidance is, even with the messiest evolution depicted, multiple violent caliber UH tracks still evolve.
The most recent full HRRR run is starting to take on more of a look that has cleaner full-on supercell structures as early as mid afternoon.
Need to start watching the hourly HRRR now because the 2z run keeps things pretty discrete during the afternoon with some impressive soundings in Alabama. Much better hodos and helicity at 20z compared to the 0z run.
