Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[LP98]

There's likely to be an overnight tornado risk in Alabama tomorrow night into Thursday morning, yes.

In his tweet, he’s talking about updraft tracks early Wednesday morning...would that be tornadic activity? I wasn’t expecting so much action first thing tomorrow. Thanks for your reply!

 

[Kory]

I guess I am having trouble understanding why the NAM/HRRR is so strong with it.

The surface winds leading up to this event are backed more than usual which is seemingly enhancing it. Normally, that would kill moisture return all together, but we've had it pooling for days just to our south. That backed wind flow should veer more SSE/S as the day progresses tomorrow and as they strengthen it will erode quickly.

 

[MattPetrulli]

So any bets on whether we get a high risk tonight?

Personally, I probably wouldn't go high risk due to storm mode uncertainties. However, I am just a severe weather enthusiast, the SPC are the professionals and I am willing to bet they go high risk given their wording.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Personally, I probably wouldn't go high risk due to storm mode uncertainties. However, I am just a severe weather enthusiast, the SPC are the professionals and I am willing to bet they go high risk given their wording.

I wonder who is on shift for the 6z Day 1?

Edit: I believe it is Darrow. We'll see what he does.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Semi-discrete storm mode and that's violent tornadoes 101 right there.

Not trying to compare this to 4/27/11 but weren't SRH like 1000 to 1200 at 0-3 km in some areas.

 

[Austin Dawg]

As soon as the warm front passes through, that is what the models are struggling with tonight...could be late morning, could be mid afternoon..probably morning.

This is what I want to know so I can start a pot of coffee and get everything up and going to watch the family, Got my T1 Radar Scope, their GPS at work and home, Discord, and start armchair chasing and watching.

We are forecast to have a pretty severe front coming through in the AM. It is forecasted like your warm front... it will happen between 4 and 10 AM. lol

 

[Evan]

Not trying to compare this to 4/27/11 but weren't SRH like 1000 to 1200 at 0-3 km in some areas.

Values are closer than you might think.

 

[Tyler Penland]

I guess I am having trouble understanding why the NAM/HRRR is so strong with it.

Idk if it helps but currently it is EXTREMELY shallow. We generally get socked in during March wedges up here but we were sunny and 62 today. Not the same down the hill, though.

Looks bizarre on the NAM by late tomorrow and the 0z initialized too cold looks like.

 

[Kory]

The 00z NAM and 00z CAMs are bad news.

 

[warneagle]

The 00z NAM and 00z CAMs are bad news.

Yeah the 0z HRRR especially is a big ol' yikes.

 

[MichelleH]

In his tweet, he’s talking about updraft tracks early Wednesday morning...would that be tornadic activity? I wasn’t expecting so much action first thing tomorrow. Thanks for your reply!

Yes, tomorrow (Wednesday) morning, there is a possibility of tornadoes from storms when the warm front moves north. There will then be a better chance of discrete supercells forming tomorrow afternoon in the warm sector that could produce violent, long-track tornadoes. And then a third wave will be Wednesday night into the overnight and early Thursday morning when the cold front comes through. There could be a line of supercells also with possible violent, long-track tornadoes and that might be the biggest threat of the entire long duration event.

 

[Marshal79344]

Man oh man, I just have a sinking pit feeling in my stomach looking at the parameters we are working with tomorrow. Anything that can get remotely established is going to be rotating...

 

[The Nino]

I need some Fred input.

 

[cmking64]

The 00z NAM and 00z CAMs are bad news.

Just shifts the threat a bit south but yes

 

[bwalk]

there will be some subtle forcing to spark a few storms, probably not enough for them to be widespread....which would give them plenty of space for long tracks

Round 2 is definitely being downplayed by many due to lack of tangible forcing mechanism(s). I find the idea of “subtle” forcing a interesting area of study. Especially the prediction and forecasting of “subtle“ forcing dynamics. Richard (or anyone),what are the most likely forcing mechanisms you believe will be in play tomorrow’s for Round 2?

 

[Fred Gossage]

Here's the thing about these CAMs and why they make this plain as day to me.... It's not about needing them to have this pristine warm sector for hours until a perfectly clean 4/27 style swarm pops off. What we have here is, no matter which you look at, they all come to a consensus that, no matter their evolution or how messy it is, they result in multiple violent caliber tracks. This is screaming at us clear as day.

 

[WesL]

Evening everyone! As things are starting to progress, I kindly ask that we keep this thread dedicated to the storms ahead. We are so excited to have so many past members join us this week. We have brought back Lori's "Getting to Know Our Members" thread which is the perfect place to reconnect. https://talkweather.com/threads/getting-to-know-our-members.61/post-52966

Please stay safe and keep up updated on what is happening where you are!

 

[darkskys25]

Quick question. Just looking at SRH on the HRRR and you see the values building/increasing over MS. Then from hours 16 to 18 they just dramatically dissipate over most of MS and AL. What is going on here?

 

[Richardjacks]

Here's the thing about these CAMs and why they make this plain as day to me.... It's not about needing them to have this pristine warm sector for hours until a perfectly clean 4/27 style swarm pops off. What we have here is, no matter which you look at, they all come to a consensus that, no matter their evolution or how messy it is, they result in multiple violent caliber tracks. This is screaming at us clear as day.

You are correct, while I have some questions about where the warm front is early afternoon, later in the day, it's all there.

 

[The Nino]

What are 'CAMs'? Weenie here, always learning.