Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[Keldeo]

 

[Richardjacks]

I've seen a bit of discussion about this second round in the afternoon timeframe after the morning warm front and before the evening cold front/qlcs. What forcing mechanic would fire off storms in this volatile warm sector during the afternoon in MS/AL?

there will be some subtle forcing to spark a few storms, probably not enough for them to be widespread....which would give them plenty of space for long tracks

 

[Argus]

Well, we're hearing thunder here. Temperature is now 47, the warmest it's been all day.

 

[The Nino]

0z HRRR wedge is scrong

 

[Gail]

Or other MSU grads. 96 Communications/English Double Major. Minor in BBQ and Dudy Noble

Talk about out of place with a bunch of weather nerds. My Meteorology elective with Dr. Wax was my favorite nonmajor class.

I *LOVED* Dr. Wax! His classes were the best!

 

[Argus]

I remember a severe weather event two years ago. We had tornado warnings in Jackson County, about 20 miles to my northwest at 8am. The line of storms didn't get to Athens until lunchtime that day. Could the line stall on Thursday?

 

[Bama Ravens]

This whole wedge thing is a bit weird. Normally you would need high pressure on the east coast pushing dry air down the east side of the Appalachians into northern GA and eastern Alabama, but here we have actually a low on the east coast and wedge keeps pushing west. Even the hrrr is showing the wedge strengthening. This is now showing quite the warm front in B'ham metro area...all while Tds are building just south of Bham. Hopefully a cell doesn't ride the warm front into Bham, but I could see that being a problem early in the afternoon.

I must be catching a little bit of that cooler air where I am, because my temperature and DP are down to 60.

 

[Richardjacks]

I understand why it keeps coming in..the low level winds are still from the east vs. south, the very thing that enhances the low level shear....just not what you typically see with this type of setup without a high on east coast.

 

[TornadoFan]

Ok, since I'm not an expert...What is a wedge?

 

[MadisonDawg]

I must be catching a little bit of that cooler air where I am, because my temperature and DP are down to 60.

I have 58 in my back yard right now. High today was 64 and over 80 in Memphis to the west. So yes, we may be getting a little of the wedge, but nothing like NE Georgia and NC.

 

[The Nino]

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I understand why it keeps coming in..the low level winds are still from the east vs. south, the very thing that enhances the low level shear....just not what you typically see with this type of setup without a high on east coast.

Yeah, this wedge really isn't anchored. I have learned my lesson with forecasting slowly retreating wedge fronts, however this one should be easier to scour out.

 

[Richardjacks]

Yeah, this wedge really isn't anchored. I have learned my lesson with forecasting slowly retreating wedge fronts, however this one should be easier to scour out.

right, I got think it is overdone....just doesn't seem realistic unless we had a whole bunch of rain falling over the front through the morning...that limits the northward movement, but no sign of that

 

[HazardousWx]

Im going into work early tomorrow. Can you hear the Keel Mtn siren from your house?

 

[Richardjacks]

This suggests the warm front is moving with no delay

 

[GTWXAlum]

Never underestimate the wedge..

Also, hello! Its been a while

 

[Kory]

HRRR is inexplicably mixing dew points in the warm sector over MS. Red flag. This is a common problem with the model. I have major doubts it is handling certain things correctly.

 

[The Nino]

Never underestimate the wedge..

Also, hello! Its been a while

'We're bobbing on the surface
And the shadow glides below
They say she feels my heartbeat
Oh, but how I'll never know'

 

[Weatherphreak]

Im going into work early tomorrow. Can you hear the Keel Mtn siren from your house?

Brad was also showing reflectivity of these storms as early as 6:30 entering South Huntsville. I wasn't expecting that so early. Already got woken up last night at 4am from that stout storm that rolled through. Was hoping I'd get a break in the AM before the marathon begins midday.

 

[Clancy]

HRRR really wanting to keep that wedge in place, but yet it's showing some notable cells during the evening round well beyond the extent of the wedge as well as this little guy during the morning stuff. Thoughts?