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Severe WX Severe Risk 2/23-2/24

The HRRR is showing a pretty nasty environment across the whole warm sector. Long track supercells in East AR tracking into the bootheel of Missouri. Also showing confluence bands with supercells across MS and AL.
 
Kory said:
The HRRR is showing a pretty nasty environment across the whole warm sector. Long track supercells in East AR tracking into the bootheel of Missouri. Also showing confluence bands with supercells across MS and AL.
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yea. spc basically scalled back the enhance just off the 0z nam... one model run showed instability wasn't alarming... could be a big mistske... see if they back peddle and add it lunch update...
 
Yeah, I think they may have to extend the ENH back to the north and west later on. I thought it was odd that they removed the strong tornado wording they had used in yesterday’s discussion given that there’s still a 10% hatched tor on there.
 
North MS/East AR/and West TN continue to look like the bullseye. I think they could expand the risk more north and west, but overall, looks good to me.
 
Kory said:
North MS/East AR/and West TN continue to look like the bullseye. I think they could expand the risk more north and west, but overall, looks good to me.
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I'm personally starting to hone in on the Tupleo to The Shoals corridor. Models seem to be converging on that region..

My concern as of now that could keep the event from realizing its potential is the backing at 700mb that @CAL alluded to, but the NAM seems to really be the only one that has enough of it to potentially disrupt the updrafts. If it trends away from it today, watch out..
 
CheeselandSkies said:
12Z ("long-range") HRRR looks like it really means business, with discrete cells with strong UH streaks from southern IL down to central MS. However, that is at the very end of its range. 12Z 3KM NAM is less impressive (I'm used to that being the great gung-ho severe model).
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The 3KM NAM has steadily increased the intensity, and number of helicity streaks with each new run. I’d look for that to continue today.
 
Using today, and the past few days as examples the warm sector instability has been under appreciated by the models.
 
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I always get a bit leery when the energy pulls NE very quickly from the Southen Plains to the Great Lakes without significant eastward progression of the trough. Just brings me back to 12/23/15. Not saying that will be the case this time...
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Using today, and the past few days as examples the warm sector instability has been under appreciated by the models.
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The only one that has had a good handle on it is the RAP which forecast SBCAPE above 1000 all the way to southern IL, and upwards of 1500 across central, and northern MS.

15z-RAP.gif
 
Kory said:
I always get a bit leery when the energy pulls NE very quickly from the Southen Plains to the Great Lakes without significant eastward progression of the trough. Just brings me back to 12/23/15. Not saying that will be the case this time...
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that was a moderate risk correct? across portions of southern tn north ms and north Alabama?
 
Kory said:
I always get a bit leery when the energy pulls NE very quickly from the Southen Plains to the Great Lakes without significant eastward progression of the trough. Just brings me back to 12/23/15. Not saying that will be the case this time...
Click to expand...

Difference in this case is heights seem to be a bit lower. I don't know if we'll see significant storms all the way down to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, but MS into NW AL look potentially volatile..
 
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