Winter WX Potential Winter Mischief 1/16 (1 Viewer)

Jacob

Member
Messages
1,080
Reaction score
556
Location
Moody, AL
Surprised there is no Winter Storm Watch yet for north and central Alabama.

Not sure I see a reason for a WSW just yet as there's way too much uncertainty at the moment, especially for Central AL. Temps are very marginal and despite the low trending a bit further south the last day or two, temps have actually trended warmer overall (surface and aloft). Wouldn't be surprised to see some heavier bands put down some pretty heavy snow across parts of N AL, only to go back to/mix with rain as it lets up. At least with the morning stuff, by the afternoon the temps should be a bit more favorable if there's still precipitation around.
 
Last edited:

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
2021 Supporter
Messages
1,043
Reaction score
945
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
The 18z nam and 18z hrrr are basically following my idea, however those solutions show slightly slower movement/pivot in the upper low...which results in the dry slot forming slower...that's a trend that will need to be monitored
 

Jacob

Member
Messages
1,080
Reaction score
556
Location
Moody, AL
The 18z nam and 18z hrrr are basically following my idea, however those solutions show slightly slower movement/pivot in the upper low...which results in the dry slot forming slower...that's a trend that will need to be monitored

The NAM is just a degree or two off from crushing parts of N AL
 

Mr. Plow

Member
Messages
11
Reaction score
6
Location
Hoover, AL
KHUN just pulled the trigger on a WSW for Jackson and Dekalb counties:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
233 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

ALZ009-010-151100-
/O.EXB.KHUN.WS.A.0001.220116T1200Z-220117T0000Z/
Jackson-DeKalb-
Including the cities of Scottsboro, Fort Payne, and Rainsville
233 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to
3 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jackson and DeKalb counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, and
due to the presence of cold temperatures, hazardous travel
conditions could persist into Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally heavier snowfall amounts may
occur in snow bands that develop across the region. So, keep
abreast of the latest forecast information as expected
snowfall totals are likely to change.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&
 
Last edited:

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
2021 Supporter
Messages
1,043
Reaction score
945
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
notice the stall of the low...basically happens as the upper low pivots. Knowing exactly where that happens is key, if the models are off....someone will get a big surprise...not only does it stall, it actually retrogrades.
 

Attachments

  • floop-nam4km-2022011412.ref1km_ptype.conus (1).gif
    floop-nam4km-2022011412.ref1km_ptype.conus (1).gif
    1.2 MB · Views: 0

JPWX

Member
Messages
49
Reaction score
127
Location
Smithville MS
I'll be honest. I'm surprised NWS Memphis hasn't extended the Winter Storm Watch further south to include all of North MS
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
2021 Supporter
Messages
1,043
Reaction score
945
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
I'll be honest. I'm surprised NWS Memphis hasn't extended the Winter Storm Watch further south to include all of North MS
yeah, the whole memphis/ North Miss, maybe even central Miss area seems to be an area that could get hit hard, was just thinking about that, they will likely be on the west side of the dry slot under a deformation band....possibly during the pivot/stall.
 
Last edited:

brianc33710

Member
Messages
240
Reaction score
77
Location
Central Alabama
1642363200-LmP354vd6NQ.png

1642214348713.png
1642214372729.png

Buckeyefan1 shared this updated HERR on Americanwx within the last 30 mins. This shows more sleet & snow in Cen AL but keeps freezing rain well east of us.
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
2021 Supporter
Messages
1,043
Reaction score
945
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
1642363200-LmP354vd6NQ.png

View attachment 11854
View attachment 11855

Buckeyefan1 shared this updated HERR on Americanwx within the last 30 mins. This shows more sleet & snow in Cen AL but keeps freezing rain well east of us.
One thing that stands out to me in peeking at the 0z runs is the dry slot isn't as pronounced in the i20 corridor...sometimes the models underplay the dryslot though
 

brianc33710

Member
Messages
240
Reaction score
77
Location
Central Alabama
One thing that stands out to me in peeking at the 0z runs is the dry slot isn't as pronounced in the i20 corridor...sometimes the models underplay the dryslot though
I'd be happy without the dry slot lol! But we'll know more in the am. Fox 6 now just forecasts rain & 41 Sunday (up from 37) with some changeover late in the day & any accumulation north of Bham. :confused:
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
2021 Supporter
Messages
1,043
Reaction score
945
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
I'd be happy without the dry slot lol! But we'll know more in the am. Fox 6 now just forecasts rain & 41 Sunday (up from 37) with some changeover late in the day & any accumulation north of Bham. :confused:
Well I believe the temperature will be a function of precip intensity. The higher precip rate, the lower the temperature, if the dry slot keeps precip fairly shallow, as some forecast soundings were showing, the low level temps would be higher
 

MattW

Member
Messages
248
Reaction score
92
Location
Decatur, GA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KG4GUF
I still can't get over how sharp the gradient in amounts is between Atlanta and areas northeast of Atlanta. That semi-surprise storm we had a few years ago (2018) where places like Marietta got 12" while Decatur got 2" was like that.
 

Uncle Nasty

Member
Messages
9
Reaction score
1
Location
Ooltewah (Chattanooga suburb)
It's a nightmare for our local Mets in Chattanooga. The safe play is a dusting up to 2" which is what 2 stations are "guessing based on the current data". Another is showing the rain turning to snow much earlier on Sunday with more accumulations. They all agree the local mountains could see significant snowfall.

The hardest thing about predicting snow in our area is the different topography. We usually get dry slotted up the valley towards Knoxville or we have some serious WAA killing any chance at getting snow. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes trying to figure this mess out. David Glenn from local ABC WTVC is, to me, the best in Chattanooga. He's playing it conservative at the moment because so much can go wrong in our area. He is saying things can and probably will change in the next few days so just be ready. Any shift of the low can make or break our chances for snow.

With the models being all over the place I'm trying to figure out if there is ANY chance for the Chattanooga area to get under the deform band.

@Richardjacks, where do you see the deform band setting up? I'm reading Memphis and moving east over N Mississippi, parts of N. Alabama and then taking a turn NE towards the Cumberland Plateau to the north of Chattanooga.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
 

akt1985

Member
Messages
767
Reaction score
258
Location
Madison, Alabama
Weird how there is a gap of Winter Storm Watches in East Tennessee while there are watches and warnings all around the Morristown CWA.
 

Uncle Nasty

Member
Messages
9
Reaction score
1
Location
Ooltewah (Chattanooga suburb)
Weird how there is a gap of Winter Storm Watches in East Tennessee while there are watches and warnings all around the Morristown CWA.
That white area with no watches or advisories is our area (Chattanooga) . I can't blame them for not including us at this point. Maybe things can change leading up to the event. A little shift in the track and a little less WAA and we might be in business for a small event. The good news is if the local mountains get pounded I'm only a 30 minute drive up Signal Mtn to my son-in-law and daughter's house. They did well on January 3rd and picked up between 4-5". If it looks like typical no snow for Ooltewah we'll just drive up there.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
 

Austin Dawg

Member
2021 Supporter
Messages
376
Reaction score
346
Location
Leander, Texas
yeah, the whole memphis/ North Miss, maybe even central Miss area seems to be an area that could get hit hard, was just thinking about that, they will likely be on the west side of the dry slot under a deformation band....possibly during the pivot/stall.

They aren't forecasting any accumulation at Mom's I'm NE MS which means they'll get from 6 - 12 inches. I lived in Monroe county most of my life and Starkville for a while and forecasting snow there is nuts. I was friends with Dr. Wax at MSU and he said that forecasting snow in MS was harder than forecasting any other kind of weather.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

1-800-PetMeds
Top