Winter WX Potential Winter Mischief 1/16

[Mike S]

WAFF's Brandon Spinner with a very good write up on possible impacts for North Alabama:

FIRST ALERT: A breakdown of our potential for rain changing to snow on Sunday

There is a chance that we could see some winter weather this weekend, but there are a lot of questions still. Brandon has a look at those questions and what we do know about this system, here!

www.waff.com

 

[pritchlaw]

How often do the models put out new runs?

 

[Weatherphreak]

I was looking at driving to North Georgia Monday to do some hiking. I read the discussion and some of the hazardous weather posts from the nws and it sounds like it may be more of an ice event over there. Anybody have any insight on what things might look like in the Blairsville Brasstown Bald area Sunday Monday? They are right on the edge in all the models. Would be cool if the roads were clear and it was snowy in the upper elevations.

 

[Richardjacks]

The real difference between the nam and other models is the handling of downstream energy and the elongated/pivot of the deepening upper low. If it's forced to slow down/dig and pivot suggested by the nam, it will be a major event for Alabama.
Since this isn't supported by the gfs or euro, I am hesitant to believe it is right.

 

[Jacob]

New Euro came quite a bit south this latest run as well. Good snow for the Huntsville area.

 

[Richardjacks]

The 18z gfs is close enough, you got to put snow in the forecast....999mb low in central GA deepening upper low. I get the feeling it is underplaying the precip on the west side along with dynamic cooling.

 

[k0skinne]

I was looking at driving to North Georgia Monday to do some hiking. I read the discussion and some of the hazardous weather posts from the nws and it sounds like it may be more of an ice event over there. Anybody have any insight on what things might look like in the Blairsville Brasstown Bald area Sunday Monday? They are right on the edge in all the models. Would be cool if the roads were clear and it was snowy in the upper elevations.

I live to the west of that area, but that spot is generally in the heart of NE Georgia CAD areas. Based upon current trends and forecasts, to say that getting there will be challenging may be an understatement. That is a beautiful area though ... and it would be great hiking if you could get there.

 

[JPWX]

I'm really shocked by how quiet it is on here especially with an impending significant winter storm.

 

[pritchlaw]

I'm really shocked by how quiet it is on here especially with an impending significant winter storm.

I was thinking the same thing. I keep checking it and nobody is saying much of anything.

 

[Richardjacks]

Here is what I am thinking...

 

[AL_ham_op]

Here is what I am thinking...

Why the weird "hump" around the Bham area?

Makes me laugh considering what people were saying two weeks ago about Bham always getting left out or being 900 degrees when everywhere else has dropped below freezing.

 

[Richardjacks]

Why the weird "hump" around the Bham area?

Makes me laugh considering what people were saying two weeks ago about Bham always getting left out or being 900 degrees when everywhere else has dropped below freezing.

2 reasons for the hump: dry slot and delayed cold air due to the surface low being a little further west and north.

 

[AL_ham_op]

2 reasons for the hump: dry slot and delayed cold air due to the surface low being a little further west and north.

Thanks...the dreaded dry slot strikes again for Bham!

 

[Richardjacks]

Thanks...the dreaded dry slot strikes again for Bham!

if the surface lows tracks slightly more south, and the upper low slows down and pivots a little west, it would be much different.

 

[bwalk]

I'm really shocked by how quiet it is on here especially with an impending significant winter storm.

Yes - I remember the 'old days' when there was a potential snow event. This board would have what seemed like 100s of active commenters crawling over each other. It was amazing. I don't know what has changed as this board can still get super busy with potential tornado events.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Hasn’t been as active since the crash or whatever happened on to the old board.

 

[brianc33710]

I was logging in now as well. And Cen AL looks most likely to just get snow. I know that this may sound strange, but I find freezing rain fascinating. And yes I know its very dangerous & Bham very narrowly avoided a significant ice storm last February. Parts of NW & W AL got over 0.5". Still, good or bad, the phenomenon intrigues me.

 

[brianc33710]

2 reasons for the hump: dry slot and delayed cold air due to the surface low being a little further west and north.

So why does the line go south again over E AL? Its like theres a skinny warm front on the diagram.

 

[Richardjacks]

So why does the line go south again over E AL? Its like theres a skinny warm front on the diagram.

Main reason is the dry slot...then as the 2ndry low takes over pushes the precip back over the northeast corner as is exits northeast...too far east for central al.

 

[akt1985]

Surprised there is no Winter Storm Watch yet for north and central Alabama.