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March Discussion

Yikes. Fayetteville is right in the path of that tornado warned cell. Looks like the one to the south of it might need a warning here in a minute too. Those things being semi-discrete for the moment isn't encouraging. Wind shear is still very, very strong down there (500 m2/s2 ESRH across the whole board on the most recent mesoanalysis).
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Thanks. I'm still a very amateur severe weather forecaster but I have learned a lot from some of the regulars on this board.

Wind whistling through the wires and bare trees here in Madison, WI. Cool but humid and if it wasn't for that wind I probably wouldn't even need my hoodie to be comfortable outside. Kind of spooky especially considering we usually still have a several inch snowpack this time of year. Blue box in effect, line rocketing through E. IA with two tornado warnings. I think with another day of moisture return today could have been on a par with some high-end east Plains/Midwest March events like 3/12/06 or 3/13/90.

Events like today also remind me of the glaring radar holes that exist in some quite tornado-prone parts of the central Midwest. Draw a parallelogram between OAX, DMX, EAX and TWX and put a radar smack dab in the middle, then do the same for DMX-DVN-EAX-LSX.
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With all the other parameters, isn't temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dews in the mid 50s to lower 60s enough to spawn significant/violent tornadoes? The Hesston, Kansas F5 tornado there was a temperature of about 75 degrees and dew of 61. Another F4 tornado was spawned north in Nebraska with a temp of 67-68 and a dew around 56-58.
 
New watch for northern and central Arkansas and southeastern Missouri. Still a very potent environment out there.
C6SPqq5UYAEmGuF.jpg
 
I have a friend who is in Missouri and there are houses which have been levelled in her neighborhood. She has shared some pictures on FB. I have asked her permission to share them, and will post them here if it is OK with her. I believe that she is in Smithville.
 
Here are some images that she has shared and she promised to send more when it is daylight. I believe that they are in a neighborhood called Diamond Crest.

17039410_10212417690823840_8422702100583780584_o.jpg 17103702_10212417691983869_7582702479398389084_n.jpg 17156011_393003724416365_1190635705010731467_n.jpg
 
SPC has introduced a slight risk for MS and Western AL driven by damaging wind prospects. That really should be the biggest risk today.

Meanwhile, the SPC completely dropped their day 6 outlook from yesterday. Why am I not surprised ?
 
warneagle said:
Yeah now the GFS is crickets all the way through next weekend. Oops.
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Like I said in an earlier post, we're gonna see the pattern reshuffle a bit. Some more suppression with high latitude blocking. Doesn't mean we won't see any severe wx but the large scale conducive pattern doesn't get going until the second half of March. At least in my opinion....
 
So this weekend has my interest as far as snow prospects go for northern NC. Primarily WNC of course. EPS is very interesting and the 0z OP run was a decent hit for the mountains. Haven't had time to look close at ptype but clown maps from the 12z GFS bury most of the northern half of the state.
 
The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Shelby County in Alabama...
Southeastern Jefferson County in Alabama...

* Until 345 PM CST

* At 246 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Concord to near Splash Adventure to Lake View,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Bessemer, Homewood, Pelham,
Mountain Brook, Helena, Hueytown, Irondale, Leeds, Fairfield,
Chelsea, Pleasant Grove, Midfield, Brighton, Indian Springs
Village, Lipscomb, Vincent and Lake View.

7091e0792c0d2065ddbfc4245bd24c3d.jpg


Sent from my LGLS775 using TalkWeather mobile app
 
That wintry event still showing up. Maybe even a few flurries across Northern parts of MS/ALA/GA.
 
Thanks for sharing the pictures Melody, they had a dangerous and destructive night!!
 
From Dodge City, KS on Tuesday. Feels odd saying this but it might be the most beautiful tornado I've ever seen.

 
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