- Moderator
- #1
March is just around the corner. Has Spring officially made its arrival or will ole man winter make his final appearance?
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Psalm 148:8
Member
Looks like it's coming in stormy!
Kory
Member
Looks like a quieter and more seasonal period is ahead. A few glancing blows with some cooler airmasses through the first two weeks of March look likely but I'd hedge my bets on above normal temps once everything is averaged.
Some blocking in the higher latitudes will act to suppress the pattern....which might act to shift the storm track south for the second half of March. But that's way out there.....
Some blocking in the higher latitudes will act to suppress the pattern....which might act to shift the storm track south for the second half of March. But that's way out there.....
- Moderator
- #4
The operational GFS has shown something quite significant for several runs going into next weekend. There has also been some pretty gnarly ensemble members of the GFS, though an obvious disagreement and inconsistency between each other.
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Timhsv
Member
Im seeing that too Taylor. Interesting to watch next several runs....
Kory
Member
Boy does it. Not to mention the global models are not on the same page whatsoever. That really adds to the uncertainty but for whatever the worth, the Euro solution doesn't have much ensemble support.
Timhsv
Member
00zGFS is till trying to say something about next weekend...with a RRQ 130knt jet into AR, with what looks like a spliting jet? It has it eye on the SE....watching
Kory
Member
10% tor added for Southern Missouri (which I think needs to be expanded further north). Some crazy shear values....will have just enough instability to work with. Tornadic discrete supercells might be limited as it quickly goes upstream into a squall line, but some notable UH streaks in Missouri and into Iowa later this evening into early overnight hours.
NWMSGuy
Member
Looks like I finally have a Severe Threat to follow-up on over the Weekend. 
gangstonc
Member
SPC has a risk area out in the SE for 3/11.
Kory
Member
Surprised they outlooked this area so soon. Model uncertainly post day 4 has been very high. Not to mention, some of the latest runs don't look that impressive. But something to keep an eye on....
- Moderator
- #12
Models came into better agreement with overnight runs. The SPC thinks there is enough confidence now to introduce a day 6 risk area for severe weather.
Kory
Member
This certainly doesn't scream severe weather to me....
Kory
Member
The low amplitude nature of this pattern continues to make this forecast for the weekend a pain. Won't take much to make this a bigger threat or trend to pretty much nothing...so it's highly uncertain as Thompson said that details will likely change.
warneagle
Member
Yeah the GFS has been all over the place with this coming weekend. I'm going to wait until Thursday or Friday to buy my ticket for the #HYPETRAIN.
- Moderator
- #16
Kory
Member
Euro/UKMET/CMC has as well. All thanks to some significant high latitude blocking....
warneagle
Member
SPC upped the wording on the latest Day 1 to include potential strong tornadoes. Now there's a 10% hatched area from about KC to Columbia to Joplin.
Kory
Member
10% hatched tor risk added for MO/East KS.
Kory
Member
Some very notable UH streaks from Eastern KS into MO. Goes linear pretty quick per the HRRR, but winds aren't completely parallel to the boundary....so a tor threat should continue with the QLCS.