March Discussion

[WesL]

Very happy to say that our own @HazardousWx is mentioned several time in this Huntsville City blog post. As a full-time worker in Madison County on most days, I'm glad to have people like him working at the EMA.

https://cityblog.huntsvilleal.gov/e...n-and-awareness-in-severe-weather-situations/

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

Next storm begins Today 3/31 with a slight risk Kansas to Oklahoma to continue into Monday 4/3 and Has a decent size Enhanced risk area already on the new day 3

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS OF TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of
central and eastern Texas into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley Sunday into Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for severe
hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that an evolving impulse within a southern branch of
split mid-latitude westerlies (likely west northwest of the Texas
Big Bend region at 12Z Sunday) will accelerate east northeastward
during this period. Considerable spread is evident within the model
output concerning the speed at which this occurs, with the more
progressive solutions suggesting that an associated negatively
tilted trough axis will at least reach the Sabine Valley by 12Z
Monday, while the slower solutions lag to the west, across parts of
the Texas South Plains into lower Rio Grande Valley.

In general, though, it appears this feature will support the
development of a significant surface low within surface troughing,
migrating northeastward out of the Mexican Plateau/lower Rio Grande
Valley region. This also appears likely to be favorably timed with
an increasingly substantive return flow off the Gulf of Mexico,
which probably will include surface dew points in the mid 60s to
around 70 F. In the presence of relatively steep mid-level lapse
rates, guidance is suggestive that this may contribute to boundary
layer based CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg within the warm sector,
inland of mid/upper Texas coastal areas. Destabilization may
coincide with strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields,
including 30-50 kt (southerly) at 850 mb and 50-70 kt (west
southwesterly) at 500 mb.

...Southeastern Plains into northwestern Gulf coast region...
Aforementioned warm sector environmental conditions, including
large-scale forcing for ascent, appear favorable for organized
severe storm development Sunday into Sunday night. This could
include discrete supercell development (with attendant large hail
and tornadic risk) prior to, and in advance of, an evolving
mesoscale convective system that may be accompanied by swaths of
potentially damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty associated with timing
of the evolving system is tempering severe probabilities somewhat,
but highest probabilities at this time appear to exist across parts
of central/eastern Texas into parts of western/ central Louisiana
Sunday afternoon and evening.