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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

Another thing to note is chrnological disrepancy. Euro is a good bit slower than the GFS (seems to be the case fairly often), and this is mentioned by BMX. Irrespective of timing, these are some beautiful-looking troughs.
1740670032445.png1740670035185.png
 
Low-level trajectories and how that impacts moisture return is the main question for areas east of the 30% risk area. Having said that, even at face value, there would likely be a dynamically forced line of storms with damaging straight-line winds and potential spin-ups even into areas with surface temps only in the low/mid 60s and dewpoints in the upper 50s. That could definitely hold together with warnings all the way into Georgia even with models as they are right now at face value. That's the baseline minimum for this for Alabama and middle Tennessee, and then any trend higher with dewpoints as we get closer would increase the potential threat. Getting higher dewpoints than currently modeled for areas east of Tupelo and Meridian will be the only way you'd have any potential for discrete activity ahead of the line that far eastward.
 
Let me use this system to put the upcoming pattern into perspective though. This is the first system out of the gate. It has moisture issues. It is happening as the pattern is just beginning to align to allow trouble. This system is likely to be one of the least impressive of this MJO cycle, of the ones that will carry an organized severe threat. Yet, it has triggered a Day 6 30% risk that explicitly mentions a significant severe weather threat and supercells with strong tornadoes. This system is a warning shot. This should get your attention as we head forward the next few weeks.

The longer-term discussion can continue over in the main thread, but this system is a preview of what this pattern will be capable of.
 
Fred Gossage said:
Let me use this system to put the upcoming pattern into perspective though. This is the first system out of the gate. It has moisture issues. It is happening as the pattern is just beginning to align to allow trouble. This system is likely to be one of the least impressive of this MJO cycle, of the ones that will carry an organized severe threat. Yet, it has triggered a Day 6 30% risk that explicitly mentions a significant severe weather threat and supercells with strong tornadoes. This system is a warning shot. This should get your attention as we head forward the next few weeks.

The longer-term discussion can continue over in the main thread, but this system is a preview of what this pattern will be capable of.
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Definitely getting my closet rearranged and my kits restocked ahead of all this.
 
Fred Gossage said:
Let me use this system to put the upcoming pattern into perspective though. This is the first system out of the gate. It has moisture issues. It is happening as the pattern is just beginning to align to allow trouble. This system is likely to be one of the least impressive of this MJO cycle, of the ones that will carry an organized severe threat. Yet, it has triggered a Day 6 30% risk that explicitly mentions a significant severe weather threat and supercells with strong tornadoes. This system is a warning shot. This should get your attention as we head forward the next few weeks.

The longer-term discussion can continue over in the main thread, but this system is a preview of what this pattern will be capable of.
Click to expand...
WOW
 
One of the things that got me paying attention to what @Fred Gossage has to say was when, either here or on AmericanWX (I forget which) he made a very prophetic post about 4/27/11 several days in advance (although I didn't see it until several years after the fact since I wasn't on either forum then). Since then I've come to appreciate he's a guy who doesn't hype unless hype is warranted.

Back to the topic at hand, as we've been seeing the GFS pretty much has represented the floor of this potential event, and today's 12Z run continues that trend with instability dropping off sharply from central Mississippi eastward; and even that would be a dangerous setup for Louisiana and western Mississippi (here we go again with the Tallulah toward either Rolling Fork or Yazoo City track, anyone?).
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
WOW
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Indeed. Definitely worrisome. To those of you on here who are worried about a repeat of 2011 and I'm gonna go back to what @Fred Gossage said. Just be prepared and ready. Yes, there are similarities but to the pattern. Fred said it best. Personally I hate bringing that year up and the ONLY reason I do is because of the pattern. That's it.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
One of the things that got me paying attention to what @Fred Gossage has to say was when, either here or on AmericanWX (I forget which) he made a very prophetic post about 4/27/11 several days in advance (although I didn't see it until several years after the fact since I wasn't on either forum then). Since then I've come to appreciate he's a guy who doesn't hype unless hype is warranted.

Back to the topic at hand, as we've been seeing the GFS pretty much has represented the floor of this potential event, and today's 12Z run continues that trend with instability dropping off sharply from central Mississippi eastward; and even that would be a dangerous setup for Louisiana and western Mississippi (here we go again with the Tallulah toward either Rolling Fork or Yazoo City track, anyone?).
Click to expand...
One other thing too is that the wind shear can compensate for the lacking of instability. That's been brought on here from time to time.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
One of the things that got me paying attention to what @Fred Gossage has to say was when, either here or on AmericanWX (I forget which) he made a very prophetic post about 4/27/11 several days in advance (although I didn't see it until several years after the fact since I wasn't on either forum then). Since then I've come to appreciate he's a guy who doesn't hype unless hype is warranted.

Back to the topic at hand, as we've been seeing the GFS pretty much has represented the floor of this potential event, and today's 12Z run continues that trend with instability dropping off sharply from central Mississippi eastward; and even that would be a dangerous setup for Louisiana and western Mississippi (here we go again with the Tallulah toward either Rolling Fork or Yazoo City track, anyone?).
Click to expand...

It was here. From the night of April 26, 2011...

"This is going to seem like an alarmist type post…but folks that have followed me for a while know that I’m not the intentional hype-type…I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is…and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency…and learn from it…

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I’ve seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather."
 
MichelleH said:
It was here. From the night of April 26, 2011...

"This is going to seem like an alarmist type post…but folks that have followed me for a while know that I’m not the intentional hype-type…I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is…and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency…and learn from it…

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I’ve seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather."
Click to expand...

Yup. So it was closer to the event than I remembered. Still, for Day 2 that's pretty ominous, and turned out to be spot on.
 
TheSuckZone said:
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Just a rolling chain of the absolutely most brain dead comments I've ever seen down below that tweet (and that's by Twitter standards). Don't regret being off social media pretty much completely aside from this forum. Every morning I wake up and thank the lord for giving me more than 3 neurons and basic human empathy.

Back to models, the 12Z GFS is coming into further agreement with the Euro, slowing down ever so slightly and depicting a trough evolution more in-line with the ECMWF. Given the timing, this could end up being a daytime event in Georgia.
1740675836451.png1740675946425.png
 
Continues to look like problems with the sub-tropical jet advecting in warm mid-upper level temperatures on the 12z guidance so far, with instability being decreased substantially. This will significant lower the ceiling of this potential event.
 
andyhb said:
Continues to look like problems with the sub-tropical jet advecting in warm mid-upper level temperatures on the 12z guidance so far, with instability being decreased substantially. This will significant lower the ceiling of this potential event.
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Yeah, not the best moisture return depicted currently. Would definitely be the main factor putting a lid on this system, but it will definitely be a problem for the immediate Gulf Coast regardless. It'll definitely be Kinematics Central though.

Edit: Corrected for wrong image (I am dummyhead)
1740676013145.png1740678227061.png
 
Last edited:
Clancy said:
Yeah, not the best moisture return depicted currently. Would definitely be the main factor putting a lid on this system, but it will definitely be a problem for the immediate Gulf Coast regardless. It'll definitely be Kinematics Central though.
View attachment 34206View attachment 34207
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def a great point, but remember, we 6 days out and models suck with moisture content this time of year, same thing happened with 12/28 and day of, we had like 3k cape across the region so, keep an eye on trends and just don't put full faith in the modeled outputs for instability content
 
Parker Copeland said:
def a great point, but remember, we 6 days out and models suck with moisture content this time of year, same thing happened with 12/28 and day of, we had like 3k cape across the region so, keep an eye on trends and just don't put full faith in the modeled outputs for instability content
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Oh you'll catch me dead before I trust the GFS on just about anything. That said, even the Euro tapers off moisture with eastward extent, so I definitely have some question with regard to moisture return.
 
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