- Moderator
- #141
Because April 3, 1974, April 27, 2011, April 8, 1998, and many others were on a Wednesday. There's several and I've considered writing a book about it. (As if I don't have enough projects going on.)
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Because April 3, 1974, April 27, 2011, April 8, 1998, and many others were on a Wednesday. There's several and I've considered writing a book about it. (As if I don't have enough projects going on.)
- Moderator
- #142
There's no official NWS definition, but many use 6 or more.
- Moderator
- #143
Considering we're going to have our heads on a swivel for every single tornado threat this season, seeing an enhanced on a day 6 was not what I wanted to wake up to.
AJS
Member
I believe it’s 12 or more.
I wish it was actually defined by the NWS. Because it seems like every winter time QCLS event is a tornado outbreak with just atleast 6-9 qualifying as a outbreak.
- Thread starter
- #147
That too is what I've also thought about doing at some point as well. Like you though I have a lot of projects I'm working on currently either finalizing or getting completed. When I do, it'll be part of my big severe weather project (which I've started on and divided it up by part 1, 2, etc.)
- Thread starter
- #148
Snippet from my Patreon Post last night: "It would not surprise me to see a Level 3 (Enhanced Risk) warranted from roughly Vicksburg, MS to Tupelo, MS in the next few updates from the Storm Prediction Center."
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- #149
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The link below takes you to a PDF file posted by NOAA regarding the subject. It is a long read, but I found it interesting.
TL;DR - there is no definition and they don't plan on defining it.
What Is A Tornado Outbreak?
warneagle
Member
Can't remember many cases recently where they dropped the "strong tornado" wording on day 6. Looks like y'all were spot on about this season starting with a bang.
MattW
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GFS has backed off a good bit for Alabama and Georgia. What am I still missing?
KevinH
Member
KevinH
Member
Yeah I realize that after I posted this lol
I think this is just a coincidence given the cyclical nature of weather patterns. I think the threat mid March is also in the middle of the week but for the same reason. I believe winter weather events TEND to occur every 7 days too for the same reason.
If people are aware and prepared as much as they can (should??) be, the day an event falls on won’t matter
That is going to be more important in the coming years than it has EVER been.I keep saying this but do not be surprised when the earth starts to do things (weather related or otherwise) it has never done before, if things happen that people thought were “impossible”.
Don’t rule ANYTHING out. ijs
Give it time, last event was similar I think
KevinH
Member
I have seen a few people (METS) state that recent large scale weather patterns (“background” I think it’s called?) this year are mimicking that of 2011 (but getting started a MONTH early). Someone in here stated that this year has looked more like 2011 more than any year since then. We still have to wait and see what the smaller scale details are, but for now people need to be made aware and prepare accordingly.
We can’t control what the weather does, but we can control what and how (much?) we prepare for it
KevinH
Member
You are missing that you are talking about Dixie Alley lol
Dixie Alley does not play by “the rules” and is known to have a few tricks up its sleeve, surprising people time and time again.
I came across a post over on AmericanWX that suggests a potential (please note the emphasis) fly in the ointment for the forecast. Here's the link to the post in question below:
www.americanwx.com
Basically, the poster looked at the CIPS Analogs for this upcoming event, and noted that there were a number of similarities between this and a QLCS event that occurred on 12/09/2012. That event was primarily wind and hail, though with some tornadoes. The poster thus floated the possibility that this upcoming event could also end up being primarily a QLCS event as well.
Of course, we'll just have to see how things ultimately play out, but at the very least let's not get too overhyped with this system (knock on wood)...
TV Severe Weather2025-?
www.americanwx.com
Basically, the poster looked at the CIPS Analogs for this upcoming event, and noted that there were a number of similarities between this and a QLCS event that occurred on 12/09/2012. That event was primarily wind and hail, though with some tornadoes. The poster thus floated the possibility that this upcoming event could also end up being primarily a QLCS event as well.
Of course, we'll just have to see how things ultimately play out, but at the very least let's not get too overhyped with this system (knock on wood)...
I came across a post over on AmericanWX that suggests a potential (please note the emphasis) fly in the ointment for the forecast. Here's the link to the post in question below:
TV Severe Weather2025-?
Basically, the poster looked at the CIPS Analogs for this upcoming event, and noted that there were a number of similarities between this and a QLCS event that occurred on 12/09/2012. That event was primarily wind and hail, though with some tornadoes. The poster thus floated the possibility that this upcoming event could also end up being primarily a QLCS event as well.
Of course, we'll just have to see how things ultimately play out, but at the very least let's not get too overhyped with this system (knock on wood)...
Me and the user stallions3peat where talking this morning at work and he said spann mentioned this could be more so a QCLS as well I think because the low pressure was further away possibly or the position.
Jason Mills
Member
The operational GFS is still flopping around like a fish out of water. There have been significant changes in trough geometry and timing with every run over the past day or so, with the corresponding changes to the surface reflection. GEFS and the ECMWF have shown more consistency.
In all seriousness, GFS being GFS, I think. Trough evolution on GFS is falling in line with the Euro, and the latter has much more impressive instability.