Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[Casuarina Head]

Question for specialists here: how many top-end tornado outbreaks have coincided with upper-50s °F dew points? I honestly think that this is a valid point to be addressed, along with the low-level inversion that others mentioned. It could prevent the northern 30% TOR from verifying.

 

[Jacob]

Arkansas storm is taking on quite an ugly look already. First big southern storm of the day and it is headed straight towards the Little Rock metro.

 

[172556]

Cell to the north of the current AR TW is beginning to get that look.

 

[TimM]

Cell to the north of the current AR TW is beginning to get that look.

This one is heading towards me.

 

[Jacob]

Cell to the north of the current AR TW is beginning to get that look.

Would be surprised if it doesn’t have a TOR on it soon. Velocities aren’t that strong yet but it’s already tightening up

 

[TimM]

I'm a few miles outside of the new tornado warning. We're getting prepared to move to our storm shelter.

 

[172556]

There's the TW on the northern cell.

Edit: Initial rotation to BWER in about 15 minutes.

 

[notsoencrypted]

I'm a few miles outside of the new tornado warning. We're getting prepared to move to our storm shelter.

Stay safe. Thinking of you and those with you.

 

[Tennie]

I'm a few miles outside of the new tornado warning. We're getting prepared to move to our storm shelter.

Please stay safe out there!

 

[Brice]

I'm a few miles outside of the new tornado warning. We're getting prepared to move to our storm shelter.

Yes please be safe, these storms are seriously going to be potentially violent today.

 

[Muwx]

The tail end Charlie storm in western missouri is looking like it wants to wrap up.

 

[TH2002]

Question for specialists here: how many top-end tornado outbreaks have coincided with upper-50s °F dew points? I honestly think that this is a valid point to be addressed, along with the low-level inversion that others mentioned. It could prevent the northern 30% TOR from verifying.

The Crittenden tornado on 3/2/2012 formed w/ surface temps in the upper 50s or lower 60s, not sure what the dewpoint was but I'd imagine it was close to that.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Palm Sunday 1965 had similar Td values across the F4+ regions

I was wrong about this. 11 Apr 1965 actually featured widespread mid-60s °F dew points over the prefrontal warm sector:

Source: Monthly Weather Review

Virtually all of the top-tier outbreaks that I can think of featured mid-to-upper 60s °F dew points over the warm sector. This one doesn’t even come close. Again, this means high Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency potential for the northern 30% TOR, in IA/MO/IL. In fact I think mesoscale analysis is overestimating SBCAPE in this region, as I can’t remember ~2,000 j/kg of SBCAPE ever coinciding with upper 50s °F dew points. Never. Also, the near-surface inversion that exists in the southern 30% TOR makes me a bit skeptical that this area will verify. Personally, upon review I think SPC made a big mistake by upgrading to HIGH Risk. I would have kept the MDT probabilities, which I think are likely to verify, unlike the 30%.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

The Crittenden tornado on 3/2/2012 formed w/ surface temps in the upper 50s or lower 60s, not sure what the dewpoint was but I'd imagine it was close to that.

57/55

 

[warneagle]

Gonna be a close shave from hot springs

 

[TornadoFan]

Funnel cloud reported on the storm NE of Glenwood.

 

[ColdFront]

I was wrong about this. 11 Apr 1965 actually featured widespread mid-60s °F dew points over the prefrontal warm sector:

Source: Monthly Weather Review

Virtually all of the top-tier outbreaks that I can think of featured mid-to-upper 60s °F dew points over the warm sector. This one doesn’t even come close. Again, this means high Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency potential for the northern 30% TOR, in IA/MO/IL. In fact I think mesoscale analysis is overestimating SBCAPE in this region, as I can’t remember ~2,000 j/kg of SBCAPE ever coinciding with upper 50s °F dew points. Never. Also, the near-surface inversion that exists in the southern 30% TOR makes me a bit skeptical that this area will verify. Personally, upon review I think SPC made a big mistake by upgrading to HIGH Risk. I would have kept the MDT probabilities, which I think are likely to verify, unlike the 30%.

 

[Casuarina Head]

The southern cells are currently struggling more than one would expect in such a supposedly “favourable” thermodynamic environment.

 

[ColdFront]

The southern cells are currently struggling more than one would expect in such a supposedly “favourable” thermodynamic environment.

You know, sometimes I think you are unfairly vilified around here. And other times like right now, I can see why. We aren’t even into the main event stage

 

[TornadoFan]

Clinton, AR storm tornado warned.