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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

Question for specialists here: how many top-end tornado outbreaks have coincided with upper-50s °F dew points? I honestly think that this is a valid point to be addressed, along with the low-level inversion that others mentioned. It could prevent the northern 30% TOR from verifying.
 
Arkansas storm is taking on quite an ugly look already. First big southern storm of the day and it is headed straight towards the Little Rock metro.
 
Casuarina Head said:
Question for specialists here: how many top-end tornado outbreaks have coincided with upper-50s °F dew points? I honestly think that this is a valid point to be addressed, along with the low-level inversion that others mentioned. It could prevent the northern 30% TOR from verifying.
Click to expand...
The Crittenden tornado on 3/2/2012 formed w/ surface temps in the upper 50s or lower 60s, not sure what the dewpoint was but I'd imagine it was close to that.
 
Casuarina Head said:
Palm Sunday 1965 had similar Td values across the F4+ regions
Click to expand...
I was wrong about this. 11 Apr 1965 actually featured widespread mid-60s °F dew points over the prefrontal warm sector:

1965-Palm-Sunday-Dew-Points.png


Source: Monthly Weather Review

Virtually all of the top-tier outbreaks that I can think of featured mid-to-upper 60s °F dew points over the warm sector. This one doesn’t even come close. Again, this means high Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency potential for the northern 30% TOR, in IA/MO/IL. In fact I think mesoscale analysis is overestimating SBCAPE in this region, as I can’t remember ~2,000 j/kg of SBCAPE ever coinciding with upper 50s °F dew points. Never. Also, the near-surface inversion that exists in the southern 30% TOR makes me a bit skeptical that this area will verify. Personally, upon review I think SPC made a big mistake by upgrading to HIGH Risk. I would have kept the MDT probabilities, which I think are likely to verify, unlike the 30%.
 
Casuarina Head said:
I was wrong about this. 11 Apr 1965 actually featured widespread mid-60s °F dew points over the prefrontal warm sector:

1965-Palm-Sunday-Dew-Points.png


Source: Monthly Weather Review

Virtually all of the top-tier outbreaks that I can think of featured mid-to-upper 60s °F dew points over the warm sector. This one doesn’t even come close. Again, this means high Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency potential for the northern 30% TOR, in IA/MO/IL. In fact I think mesoscale analysis is overestimating SBCAPE in this region, as I can’t remember ~2,000 j/kg of SBCAPE ever coinciding with upper 50s °F dew points. Never. Also, the near-surface inversion that exists in the southern 30% TOR makes me a bit skeptical that this area will verify. Personally, upon review I think SPC made a big mistake by upgrading to HIGH Risk. I would have kept the MDT probabilities, which I think are likely to verify, unlike the 30%.
Click to expand...
1680287248307.jpeg
 
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