Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 93...

VALID 311751Z - 311915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 93 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH 200-230PM
CDT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL (2-3 INCHES DIAMETER) IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60-62 DEG
F RANGE. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP SURFACE
TO 300-MB LAPSE RATES (7.5 DEG C/KM) WITH IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY
SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. AS THE SUPERCELLS MATURE AND THE SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, SOME BACKING OF NEAR-SURFACE
WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGING THROUGH 2-3PM.
AS THIS HODOGRAPH CHANGE OCCURS, TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL MARKEDLY
INCREASE. VERY LARGE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY (0-3 KM MLCAPE 200-300
J/KG) AND THE INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WILL COMBINE TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS AS THEY
RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IA AND APPROACH THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

..SMITH.. 03/31/2023

 

[ColdFront]

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT

Took That line from the discussion @WxMan42711 posted above

 

[warneagle]

It sure looks like that Arkansas cell is getting ready to put something down.

Moving northeast at 60 mph too, which would put it in the Little Rock metro in about an hour and fifteen minutes.

 

[treypops]

We've got Tornado Watches, mostly PDS watches, extending from extreme northeast Texas all the way up to the Minnesota border.

Just wow.

 

[ColdFront]

You know it’s bad potentially when you don’t know where to focus because so many areas are under the gun

 

[Austin Dawg]

I could see that High Risk being expanded eastward to include more of Northeast MS.

I'm really worried about the extreme northern counties in Mississippi from Memphis to Tishomingo, and the Delta to Tupelo... It all depends on how much CAPE is left when the storms gets to East Mississippi.

 

[Argus]

Looks like that stuff in northeast Missouri is making a beeline for Chicago.

 

[Casuarina Head]

WOW!!!!! Do yall think this HIGH Risk is justified? Dewpoints in the lower 60s aren't the most buoyant for mega outbreaks.

Palm Sunday 1965 had similar Td values across the F4+ regions

 

[Kragg]

Looks like the AR storm might be cycling,

 

[Clancy]

AR cell has BWER.

 

[172556]

It would appear Radarscope may be having issues, just had a minute or two where I couldn't switch products or sites.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

AR cell has BWER.

Probably about to go stupid here soon.

The velocity couplet that is*

 

[Kragg]

It would appear Radarscope may be having issues, just had a minute or two where I couldn't switch products or sites.

Same

 

[Casuarina Head]

Does anyone know why SPC’s mesoscale analysis shows SBCAPE of ~2,000 j/kg over portions of IL despite dew points in the upper 50s °F? That seems high...

 

[cincywx]

live coverage from little rock local news: https://katv.com/watch

 

[Liberty4dayz]

Ramping up looks like

Sent from my T767W using Tapatalk

 

[172556]

Yikes on the drastic change in the last two frames of the Glenwood, AR cell. Wouldn't be surprised if it's down by the next scan.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Few more BWERS and thisll be a pretty dangerous mesocyclone

 

[Evan]

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT

Took That line from the discussion @WxMan42711 posted above

Yeah, if you look east of Kansas City there's a line of supercells that should continue to mature in the coming hours. As they move into a more favorable environment, where the conditions for tornado genesis are quite good, we may end up with a large number of tornado producing cells all occurring around the same time. Scary situation.

 

[JayF]

New Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023