Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[SmokeEater]

And it's TW'd.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[TimM]

Tornado warning here in Arkansas

 

[JayF]

TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1241 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
TORNADO WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

 

[ColdFront]

Omg that three body scatter spike

 

[SmokeEater]

Anddddd we're off.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[Clancy]

Powerful couplet NE of Newhope.

 

[KCweatherboy]

The tornado warned storm in Arkansas seems like it could be the first big problem of the day. Assuming it holds together beyond the current warning polygon, it's headed right for Little Rock

 

[Austin Dawg]

That's ironic before I went to bed last night I set my RadarScope on Little Rock Arkansas so I opened the app and right up , on the screen is a tornado warning.

 

[warneagle]

That Arkansas cell is on a collision course with Little Rock. If that thing puts down a long-tracker this could get ugly really fast.

 

[TornadoFan]

That Arkansas cell is making me a bit nervous.

 

[Equus]

Yeah this doesn't look ideal

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The southern end tornado risk has me the most concerned. The CSU-MLP has increased tornado max probs continuously over several runs and now shows the 30% hatched risk category. HREF/SREF 24hr calibrated guidance shows 15% in the same area.

 

[ColdFront]

Please don’t take this literal or me pontificating on todays ceiling.

While last week was terrible, it took some time for those storms to mature. These storms here are forming, getting it together, and becoming dangerous in a relatively quick amount of time

 

[treypops]

That Arkansas cell is on a collision course with Little Rock. If that thing puts down a long-tracker this could get ugly really fast.

If it holds together, it may go just north, provided there's no wobble, but that's still a very densely-populated area.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Meso's will take some time to become efficient tornado producers. My guess with today's environment would be 30-60 mins from initiation.

 

[JPWX]

I could see that High Risk being expanded eastward to include more of Northeast MS.

 

[TornadoFan]

It sure looks like that Arkansas cell is getting ready to put something down.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

LZK believes a TOR is in progress west of Kirby. Just not confirmed via the traditional paths yet.

 

[treypops]

I could see that High Risk being expanded eastward to include more of Northeast MS.

The soundings I've been looking at don't show as volatile of an atmosphere to work with in NE Miss. Of course, those were just models.

 

[brianc33710]

Well at least "destructive-level" severe straight line winds look rather unlikely & last weeks "apple" (lol) size hail isn't as certain. there doesn't appear likely to have a derecho for areas not hammered by the strong-violent tornadoes. Many HIGH Risks feature threats for all 3 & as did the last HR 25 Mar 21.