Hurricane LEE

[WesL]

Worrisome update but on another topic I really like that summary.

 

[JBishopwx]

Got them from Bryan Nordcross website, https://www.hurricaneintel.com/

 

[Casuarina Head]

Even if this were a 175-knot (200-mph), sub-900-mb major hurricane, I would not be in the least concerned, given that current indicators overwhelmingly favour a path OTS between the U.S. and Bermuda, like Edouard’s (1996). Fortunately, this should be no more than one of the most spectacular “fish”-type hurricanes on record, at least since the launch of satellites in 1960. Not only is this storm going to be extremely intense, but also quite large, given low environmental pressures. To say that coastal regions are “dodging heavy artillery” would be an understatement in this case. The fact that this is happening during a moderate to strong Niño is also noteworthy. As an aside, this storm’s peak is likely to very nearly coincide with that of Hurricane Jova in the EPAC, so we could see some spectacular imagery showing simultaneous Category-4+ cyclones in both basins.

 

[Timhsv]

View attachment 21609

Wobble West.....concern..........

 

[Casuarina Head]

“Eye spy” two monsters in the making. Lee is almost certainly a minimal hurricane at this time, while Jova is probably already a major (look at that pinhole!).

 

[JBishopwx]

So @JPWX , when was the last time we had two cat 4s in both basins at the same time? I don't recall of it happening recently.

 

[Casuarina Head]

So @JPWX , when was the last time we had two cat 4s in both basins at the same time? I don't recall of it happening recently.

Given current trends, we could come very close to seeing simultaneous Cat-5s. Jova in particular is well on its way, given its cold CDO and pinhole-eye.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Strongest Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin during El Niño, 1960*–Present

1. 1969 CAMILLE: 150 kt (175 mph) / 900 mb
2. 2004 IVAN: 145 kt (165 mph) / 910 mb
3. 2018 MICHAEL: 140 kt (160 mph) / 919 mb
4. 2015 JOAQUIN: 135 kt (155 mph) / 931 mb
5. 2004 CHARLEY: 130 kt (150 mph) / 941 mb
6. 2002 LILI: 125 kt (145 mph) / 938 mb
7. 2004 FRANCES: 125 kt (145 mph) / 935 mb
8. 2004 KARL: 125 kt (145 mph) / 938 mb
9. 2014 GONZALO: 125 kt (145 mph) / 940 mb
10. 1982 DEBBY: 115 kt (130 mph) / 950 mb

*Reliable records only go back to the first year of satellite

Source

 

[warneagle]

Given current trends, we could come very close to seeing simultaneous Cat-5s. Jova in particular is well on its way, given its cold CDO and pinhole-eye.

There have never been simultaneous category 5s in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, although simultaneous category 5s in the Atlantic and Northwest Pacific have happened twice, with Hurricane Emily and Super Typhoon Haitang in July 2005 and Hurricane Carla and Super Typhoons Nancy and Pamela in September 1961 (simultaneous cat 5s in all basins have only happened six times from what I can find).

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Sub 900mb

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Huge changes on the operational EURO that has a door cracked for a US impact, particularly the northeast.

 

[JBishopwx]

So @JPWX , when was the last time we had two cat 4s in both basins at the same time? I don't recall of it happening recently.

The only time i can find two cats 4's in the EPAC and Atlantic at the same time was Olivia and Florence in 2018.

 

[JPWX]

So @JPWX , when was the last time we had two cat 4s in both basins at the same time? I don't recall of it happening recently.

1978 and 2004

 

[Jacob]

Huge changes on the operational EURO that has a door creaked for a US impact, particularly the northeast.

It has that trough across the Great Lakes weaker and exiting faster, to the point it doesn’t pick up Lee. Canadian has it the strongest of the models, and it picks it up and whisks it away to sea. Euro is the weakest, and it looks to me that if it went past 240, it’d have a landfall in the NE. GFS is sorta between the two and brings it into Nova Scotia

 

[Casuarina Head]

AL, 13, 2023090618, , BEST, 0, 146N, 460W, 65, 991, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 240, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,

We now have Hurricane LEE, as expected.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Looks like the 12z GFS was much northeast compared to the tropical model consensus track guidance through 7AM Monday, September 11th. The 12z EURO appeared closer to the consensus area of what appears to be nearest to 23N/65W.

 

[akt1985]

Lee is officially a hurricane with the latest advisory.

 

[Clancy]

Maximum winds for Lee in the 11 PM forecast track 155 MPH, very top of Cat. 4.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Last night’s 00z EURO forecast a 905mb central pressure on Lee! The EURO has frequently been in the 910s. I can’t recall output like this from one of the best Global models. I expect this to be comfortably in the Top 10 Most Intense Atlantic Hurricanes on record, something we haven’t seen since 2005.



@JPWX, request please for the lowest minimal central pressure on a tropical system across the world? Also, what storms have made landfall in Maine?

 

[JPWX]

Last night’s 00z EURO forecast a 905mb central pressure on Lee! The EURO has frequently been in the 910s. I can’t recall output like this from one of the best Global models. I expect this to be comfortably in the Top 10 Most Intense Atlantic Hurricanes on record, something we haven’t seen since 2005.

View attachment 21625

@JPWX, request please for the lowest minimal central pressure on a tropical system across the world? Also, what storms have made landfall in Maine?

Maine Hurricanes: Carol and Edna (August/September 1954), Gloria (September 1985), and Bob (September 1991). Bob was the last official hurricane to make landfall in the Northeast U.S. Lowest pressure globally from a tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Tip (1979): 870mb, Hurricane Patricia (2015) 872mb, Hurricane Wilma (2005) 882mb, 1991 Odisha Cyclone 912mb (North Indian Ocean), Severe Tropical Cyclone Gafilo 895mb (2003/04 Southwest Indian Ocean), Cyclone Mahina 880mb (1898/99 Australian Region), and Cyclone Winston 884mb (2015/16 South Pacific).