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Hurricane LEE

Blountwolf

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I predict more surprises. :)
 

Blountwolf

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Safe to say the Monster that shows up after this EWRC completes will be the really fun storm to track.

I'm not at all sure that is what we are witnessing - may have dealt with some shear and maybe some dry air entrainment. Deep moisture and cold cloud tops wrapping back up now though, no sign of a larger eyewall. Not entirely sure what that was all about.
 

Blountwolf

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Yep, no sign of it at all on MIMIC - this was not an eyewall replacement. And wow that little eye is going to spin in a hurry.

 

Blountwolf

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Really neat structure on this storm.
1694181729674.png
 

JPWX

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Some shear issues but honestly looking at latest satellite imagery it was just a little bump in the road as it's looking impressive once again. Wouldn't be surprised if it got back to category 5 intensity again
 

Blountwolf

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I'm getting pretty annoyed with whoever is making the mesoscale floater decisions on GOES east. Pick one, and yes, Lee needs one of the floaters dedicated to it.
 

Jacob

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12z Euro has Lee at 962mb making landfall near the Rhode Island/Massachusetts state line. Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket would be in the eastern eyewall.

That's still at 204 hours out though. All going to depend on the timing with these troughs coming through.
 
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bjdeming

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This is probably inaccurate and certainly not very relevant just now but looking at the NHC's graphics, I wondered how far apart Lee and Margot might be at 2 p.m. on Friday, considering each as a single point on a 100% correct forecast track.

Under these ridiculously oversimple limits -- ignoring outflows, etc.makes the whole exercise stupid, I know -- the two points L and M will be more than 800 km too far apart for the Fujiwhara dance to begin.

It's just that you can't help but wonder, looking at all that stuff ahead of Lee in the north and to its west as it travels by.
 
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