I predict more surprises. 
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Hurricane LEE
- Thread starter Casuarina Head
- Start date
DUUUVAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLL
Member
Does anybody happen to know the farthest East a Cat 5 has formed? My limited research turned up just GOM and the Caribbean but nothing out in the Atlantic.
JPWX
Member
Lorenzo 2019
I'm not at all sure that is what we are witnessing - may have dealt with some shear and maybe some dry air entrainment. Deep moisture and cold cloud tops wrapping back up now though, no sign of a larger eyewall. Not entirely sure what that was all about.
Yep, no sign of it at all on MIMIC - this was not an eyewall replacement. And wow that little eye is going to spin in a hurry.
Really neat structure on this storm.
Clancy
Member
As of 11 AM, winds back down to 155. Shear giving it some trouble I believe.
JPWX
Member
Some shear issues but honestly looking at latest satellite imagery it was just a little bump in the road as it's looking impressive once again. Wouldn't be surprised if it got back to category 5 intensity again
Clancy
Member
Model output also indicating this storm could be a threat to parts of the American Northeast and Canada, especially Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
I'm getting pretty annoyed with whoever is making the mesoscale floater decisions on GOES east. Pick one, and yes, Lee needs one of the floaters dedicated to it.
- Moderator
- #111
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TornadoFan
Member
Lee's sustained winds are now down to 115 MPH and pressure is up to 963 Mb as of the 11 PM update.
akt1985
Member
Still a major hurricane, barely, this morning.
12z Euro has Lee at 962mb making landfall near the Rhode Island/Massachusetts state line. Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket would be in the eastern eyewall.
That's still at 204 hours out though. All going to depend on the timing with these troughs coming through.
That's still at 204 hours out though. All going to depend on the timing with these troughs coming through.
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akt1985
Member
Lee has weakened to a Category 2. Just think, some forecasts had Lee reach almost 200 MPH 48 hours ago.
- Moderator
- #116
Excited to see what it is about to do over the next 48 hours.
- Moderator
- #117
Excited to see what it is about to do over the next 48-60 hours.
Clancy
Member
Winds up slightly to 110 MPH, trend of re-strengthening expected.
This is probably inaccurate and certainly not very relevant just now but looking at the NHC's graphics, I wondered how far apart Lee and Margot might be at 2 p.m. on Friday, considering each as a single point on a 100% correct forecast track.
Under these ridiculously oversimple limits -- ignoring outflows, etc.makes the whole exercise stupid, I know -- the two points L and M will be more than 800 km too far apart for the Fujiwhara dance to begin.
It's just that you can't help but wonder, looking at all that stuff ahead of Lee in the north and to its west as it travels by.
Under these ridiculously oversimple limits -- ignoring outflows, etc.makes the whole exercise stupid, I know -- the two points L and M will be more than 800 km too far apart for the Fujiwhara dance to begin.
It's just that you can't help but wonder, looking at all that stuff ahead of Lee in the north and to its west as it travels by.
akt1985
Member
Lee is back to major hurricane status