Winter WX January 29-30 Southeast Event

[Richardjacks]

18z NAM missing the precip breaking out in Arkansas

 

[pritchlaw]

 

[Bama Ravens]

I am taking the 18z GFS and checking out.

 

[Richardjacks]

I can't wait to read the AFD

 

[Richardjacks]

the GFS is also missing the precip back in Arkansas...it is pre-frontal but does show the approaching short wave has lots of lift

 

[Richardjacks]

convection firing now in the NW gulf..this will push NE overnight, I am feeling better about this

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[Blountwolf]

How quickly we get to freezing will be the story of this event. I'm hopeful it will be quick - I'd rather have snow accumulate on roads fast and keep everyone home than have wet roads flash freeze into ice a little later.

 

[Hailey]

Is it just me or is there a lot of precipitation developing?


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[Blizzard1]

Is it just me or is there a lot of precipitation developing?


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Seems to be breaking out pretty good so far, it isn't just you. Let's just hope for the cold air advection to swoop in quickly post frontal passage to tap into any "over-performance" of precip we get. As several of us have said, that will be the biggest determining factor of this set up.

 

[Hailey]

Is the cold air advection swooping in quickly very likely in this case?


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[Kory]

BAMS, HRRR, RAP are all good hits for Central MS into Central AL.

 

[Blizzard1]

Is the cold air advection swooping in quickly very likely in this case?


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Yes, post frontal pssage temps should crash pretty rapidly and as the upper levels cool, the harder the precipitation it should help bring the cold air to the surfacee. They are calling for a fairly rapid change over in this case and the convective nature of the snow will help the whole set up as well in the cooling process.

 

[Cat5]

BAMS, HRRR, RAP are all good hits for Central MS into Central AL.

So is that in general or CAA? or snow amounts?

 

[Richardjacks]

If RAP is right, I could see parts of Jeff and Shelby getting 4"+

 

[Blizzard1]

So is that in general or CAA? or snow amounts?

Snow amounts but those amounts will not happen without the needed CAA so they kinda go hand in hand.

 

[Kory]

So is that in general or CAA? or snow amounts?

Snow amounts. The rates are very high for our standards which allows pretty heavy accumulation.

 

[Richardjacks]

Over the last few runs RAP has trended further north with the precip (slightly) and further south with the cold air.

 

[Kory]

The HRRR has 45-50 dBz in the snow band with the immediate changeover. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little thundersnow somewhere with rates pushing 2" an hour.

 

[Richardjacks]

The HRRR has 45-50 dBz in the snow band with the immediate changeover. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little thundersnow somewhere with rates pushing 2" an hour.

Lapse rates do support that idea.