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Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

Equus said:
I fully expected a MDT for wind to the north where some areas have been downgraded to a slight, and at least a 10% for TOR even despite the uncertainty given the absurd parameters. Really and truly surprised. We used to get MDT days all the time for far less. There are places in the 2% on the D1 with PDS TOR soundings on the HRRR, hah
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Probably one of the reasons is even on the beefed up HRRR(which has ran far too hot across AR/TX a long with the WRF-ARW) and the other CAMs, the UH streaks just don't support a larger tornado threat. The CAMs just aren't seeing that high a ceiling at worst case.

Edit: For instance latest HRRR. Note that most of that over AR/LA is busting big time.

uh25_max.us_se.png
 
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Timhsv said:
I agree. It's still to be seen what the sun will allowed to do later on and with the increase in the LLJ. Those STP's are there for a reason
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This isn't going to be one of those events where all day cloud cover is going to be enough to kill the threat, right? So far, I haven't heard anyone say "If the sun comes out, it'll give us more to worry about." Everything I've seen and heard says the warm air coming north is going to bring plenty of instability and breaks in the clouds won't matter much either way.
 
Parysa said:
This isn't going to be one of those events where all day cloud cover is going to be enough to kill the threat, right? So far, I haven't heard anyone say "If the sun comes out, it'll give us more to worry about." Everything I've seen and heard says the warm air coming north is going to bring plenty of instability and breaks in the clouds won't matter much either way.
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I think it might be because of the cold temps aloft that can cap the warm air even if the sun comes out because they're so cold. I might be wrong but that's my thinking ATM.
 
And seriously lack of shear in the upper levels. Looks to be a straight line event IMO, although VERY potent! (I'm speaking of Bham only, FYI)
 
Yeah I definitely think the HRRR is way too aggressive, but I guess I'm a little surprised the wind isn't even hatched. Ah well, guess the uncertainties are really still pretty significant.
 
Very loud this morning in Memphis! One radar indicated/spotted tornado in North Mississippi. My grandparents are under the gun right now in Collierville - we should be in the clear in about 20-30 minutes. It's very hard to see anything outside, but the lightning and wind has been pretty intense.
 
Well have noticed over past 45 mins or so that the QLCS has "split" with the northern section have more forward speed and much more intense as of now.. Also so discrete convection forming in NW Alabama near Florence.. All this bears watching.
 
Was there any explanation why there was such a reduced enhance risk for the northern portion of Alabama? Why not just keep it? A lot of people will perceive that as a out of woods so to speak
 
Gawxnative said:
Well have noticed over past 45 mins or so that the QLCS has "split" with the northern section have more forward speed and much more intense as of now.. Also so discrete convection forming in NW Alabama near Florence.. All this bears watching.
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yes and this split from north to south will allow a larger area for discrete cells for areas further south...also, as it pivots, the norther section may slow down a bit and even become a little more west to east oriented vs north to south and then get a push and accelerate as a north to south line again
 
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In addition to the 10 hatch, there is now a 45% wind risk for a swath ahead of the line into W AL. Not hatched, but the 13z is as close to a MDT as you'll get without an actual MDT...
 
Bama Ravens said:
It’s interesting how the HRRR has latched into the idea of the line not being solid as it moves through Alabama. Any thoughts?

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Doesn't look like it's initializing well regarding the northern part of the qlcs, the timing is off by hours. Personally I don't buy the line changing into a semi-discrete storm mode as shown but it may be onto something. There is a lot of convection starting to pop up in front of the line further south in MS so I'm led to believe it could get to be pretty messy. We'll have to wait and see.
 
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