Casie
Member
Come on 2:00 am! LOLI Imagine the forecast will be corrected as a new shift and new data become available.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: this_feature_currently_requires_accessing_site_using_safari
Come on 2:00 am! LOLI Imagine the forecast will be corrected as a new shift and new data become available.
I fully expected a MDT for wind to the north where some areas have been downgraded to a slight, and at least a 10% for TOR even despite the uncertainty given the absurd parameters. Really and truly surprised. We used to get MDT days all the time for far less. There are places in the 2% on the D1 with PDS TOR soundings on the HRRR, hah
This isn't going to be one of those events where all day cloud cover is going to be enough to kill the threat, right? So far, I haven't heard anyone say "If the sun comes out, it'll give us more to worry about." Everything I've seen and heard says the warm air coming north is going to bring plenty of instability and breaks in the clouds won't matter much either way.I agree. It's still to be seen what the sun will allowed to do later on and with the increase in the LLJ. Those STP's are there for a reason
I think it might be because of the cold temps aloft that can cap the warm air even if the sun comes out because they're so cold. I might be wrong but that's my thinking ATM.This isn't going to be one of those events where all day cloud cover is going to be enough to kill the threat, right? So far, I haven't heard anyone say "If the sun comes out, it'll give us more to worry about." Everything I've seen and heard says the warm air coming north is going to bring plenty of instability and breaks in the clouds won't matter much either way.
yes and this split from north to south will allow a larger area for discrete cells for areas further south...also, as it pivots, the norther section may slow down a bit and even become a little more west to east oriented vs north to south and then get a push and accelerate as a north to south line againWell have noticed over past 45 mins or so that the QLCS has "split" with the northern section have more forward speed and much more intense as of now.. Also so discrete convection forming in NW Alabama near Florence.. All this bears watching.
Yikes I'm in Florence!Well have noticed over past 45 mins or so that the QLCS has "split" with the northern section have more forward speed and much more intense as of now.. Also so discrete convection forming in NW Alabama near Florence.. All this bears watching.
I just realized that, when I said this, I was looking at the then Day 1 outlook (which went through 6am) and the enhanced risk on that one had been expanded. None of Alabama has been removed from the enhanced.I didn’t expect to wake up and see a big chunk of Alabama taken back out of the enhanced risk.
Doesn't look like it's initializing well regarding the northern part of the qlcs, the timing is off by hours. Personally I don't buy the line changing into a semi-discrete storm mode as shown but it may be onto something. There is a lot of convection starting to pop up in front of the line further south in MS so I'm led to believe it could get to be pretty messy. We'll have to wait and see.It’s interesting how the HRRR has latched into the idea of the line not being solid as it moves through Alabama. Any thoughts?
View attachment 2388