Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

[Equus]

HRRR doing HRRR things near Hamilton, just your standard everyday 737 m2s2 0-1km SRH

 

[TornadoFan]

I feel the HRRR is really overdoing this.

 

[Equus]

Likely; it only knows full on murder-outbreak mode or completely bust and nothing in between. Not that I don't expect numerous tornadoes within the line with the ridiculous wind fields, regardless.

 

[darkskys25]

Maybe im miss reading but from what ive seen the cape from the 3k nam hrrr and rap all are extremely high. Thats very concerning. Hrrr just seems way out in left field but it has some support.

 

[MichelleH]

If the STP comes to fruition, dear Lord...

 

[MikeP]

Seems it's more flash flood issues out west now.....

 

[Timhsv]

I hope this is ok: Does anyone have a list of Nexrad Level II data access
for GR2A?
Thank you

 

[Equus]

I fully expect the HRRR is too aggressive, but I'm really concerned about more moisture return and higher temperatures than expected amidst these incredible wind fields and at the very least lots of destructive wind gusts... if we DO get supercells, I'm making a basement nest immediately

 

[MichelleH]

I fully expect the HRRR is too aggressive, but I'm really concerned about more moisture return and higher temperatures than expected amidst these incredible wind fields and at the very least lots of destructive wind gusts... if we DO get supercells, I'm making a basement nest immediately

I wish we had a basement!! All we have is a bathroom in the center of the house without any windows.

 

[South AL Wx]

It looks like SPC actually backed off a bit on the latest Day 1 Outlook (for Saturday). Still an enhanced risk, but only 5% tornado probs. The wind probs are 30%, but non-hatched.

 

[Equus]

Yeah that is a major downgrade, count me a little surprised. They're definitely counting on a lot of limiting factors and don't seem too confident in prefrontal cells. Surface obs may tell the story... would not be shocked to get an upgrade in a later outlook depending on trends

 

[Jonathan Burleson]

In all my years of patiently, or not so patiently waiting for the 1st new outlook of the day, I've never been so shocked.

 

[Equus]

I fully expected a MDT for wind to the north where some areas have been downgraded to a slight, and at least a 10% for TOR even despite the uncertainty given the absurd parameters. Really and truly surprised. We used to get MDT days all the time for far less. There are places in the 2% on the D1 with PDS TOR soundings on the HRRR, hah

 

[Casie]

I can't see their reasoning? I'm stumped!

 

[Timhsv]

In all my years of patiently, or not so patiently waiting for the 1st new outlook of the day, I've never been so shocked.

Me too Jonathan. I just this think the lower thermodynamics are in play. Tremendous shear, but maybe little in way of directional shear?

 

[bwalk]

Earlier in the week there was some discussion of height falls related coastal convection being a limiting factor with this system on Saturday (today). I’m taking it those concerns disappeared based on the new model runs as the week progressed?

 

[Casie]

Me too Jonathan. I just this think the lower thermodynamics are in play. Tremendous shear, but maybe little in way of directional shear?

Maybe they're thinking more of a straight line wind event? I did notice the plots didn't really show shear at the upper levels?

 

[Jonathan Burleson]

Me too Jonathan. I just think the lower thermodynamics are in play. Tremendous shear, but maybe little in way of directional shear?

Perhaps. The hi-rez models have the tornado parameters so high though...obviously, they have their reasons. I"m still thinking the tornado threat may increase overall, in LA/MS even between now and 6:00 AM.

 

[Timhsv]

Perhaps. The hi-rez models have the tornado parameters so high though...obviously, they have their reasons. I"m still thinking the tornado threat may increase overall, in LA/MS even between now and 6:00 AM.

I agree. It's still to be seen what the sun will allowed to do later on and with the increase in the LLJ. Those STP's are there for a reason

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I Imagine the forecast will be corrected as a new shift and new data become available.