Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

[Kory]

Looks like the period that has been extensively discussed in the 2020 severe wx threat has been highlighted by the SPC for the Day 6/Day 7 outlook. This has been a consistent signal and there looks to be continued threats beyond this one, but this looks like the initial one that kicks off an active stretch.

Day 6:

Day 7:

 

[Mike S]

I found this thread on Twitter from SPC met Evan Bentley interesting regarding the rarity of a January Day 7.

It is an extended discussion so if interested click on the tweet below(you don't need an account to read) and then scroll down as he discusses the topic in multiple tweets.

 

[TCLwx]

I found this thread on Twitter from SPC met Evan Bentley interesting regarding the rarity of a January Day 7.

It is an extended discussion so if interested click on the tweet below(you don't need an account to read) and then scroll down as he discusses the topic in multiple tweets.

Very interesting. Any idea how long SPC has been going out as far as D7?

 

[Mike S]

Very interesting. Any idea how long SPC has been going out as far as D7?

I think the Day 4-8 came along in the mid 2000's

 

[Gail]

We had a tornado hit our town, just feet from my house, on Jan 10, 2008. That date is giving me a little anxiety. I could see this from my house. . It also destroyed some nearby homes.

 

[MichelleH]

The last major January tornado I can remember that went through my area was the F3 tornado of January 19. 1988. Remember that VERY well. It did a lot of damage in the city of Cullman and there were 35 injuries, but thankfully no deaths.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Something interesting to watch for sure. The ECMWF Hi-Res 12z paints a pretty nasty scenario for not only Alabama on Sat, but quickly moves it into Georgia Sat night. Forecast soundings show a STP of 2+ with what might be discrete (at least broken line) cells in the area. Not a good look, but it is in the voodoo range so probably will change.

Went back and watched the STP (Sig Tor) presentation by lead SPC forecaster, Rich Thompson from a couple years ago. If you haven't seen it, it's worth a view.

 

[Xenesthis]

Very interesting. Any idea how long SPC has been going out as far as D7?

I would love to know what dates the 4 times a day 7 was issued in the month of January....

 

[Kory]

The majority of GFS ensembles look like the euro which are a significant threat. Only fly or two in the ointment might be the surface to 3KM lapse rates (which won’t be a problem if this thing comes through peak heating) and if this amplifies anymore. Euro looks to have gone more lower amplitude with the wave at 12z but did speed it up a touch.

 

[Mike S]

I would love to know what dates the 4 times a day 7 was issued in the month of January....

Click on Evan Bentley's tweet that I posted. Once it opens start scrolling and it will tell you the dates with maps on how they verified.

 

[Xenesthis]

Click on Evan Bentley's tweet that I posted. Once it opens start scrolling and it will tell you the dates with maps on how they verified.

Thanks! Overall the trend of them verifying is currently 75%.. Pretty high odds

 

[maroonedinhsv]

Thanks! Overall the trend of them verifying is currently 75%.. Pretty high odds

You should not assign likelihood when the number of samples is that small.

 

[Xenesthis]

You should not assign likelihood when the number of samples is that small.

Oh trust me I realize that. I will just be curious if this keeps the trend or not

 

[maroonedinhsv]

Oh trust me I realize that. I will just be curious if this keeps the trend or not

It will change it to either 80% or 60%.

 

[Jonathan Burleson]

Oh, trust me I realize that. I will just be curious if this keeps the trend or not

I understand that line of thinking. I know there are only 4 samples, but you have to start somewhere. I'm a percentage kind of person myself, so I understand.

As far as this system is concerned, timing is really different depending on what of both the GFS and Euro that you look at, and that changes what may be the eventual outcome.

This system does have my attention and I do believe it may be the start of an extended tornado season, starting now and ending in middle March here in the Dixie Alley.

Again, these are just my opinions. Just long all of us, I'm still learning, and always will be.

 

[Gail]

30% on today’s Day 5 for the Ark-La-Tex.

 

[Timhsv]

You Retweeted




Evan Bentley

@evan_bentley

What are the takeaways? A D7 outlook area is rarely issued. Especially in January. Therefore, everyone should keep a close eye on the weather as we approach next weekend. However, it is important to remember, these past events were 30% probs and not 15%.

 

[gangstonc]

Friday has a 30% on the latest outlook.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

If the mid level jet is being under estimated ... instability and cape will be higher... going be interesting watching models moving forward as we get closer when meso Data becomes very important for the event...

 

[Xenesthis]

If the mid level jet is being under estimated ... instability and cape will be higher... going be interesting watching models moving forward as we get closer when meso Data becomes very important for the event...

Honestly I think that will be the issue for this system. The wind profile s may be there but instability will be lacking further north. I don't see anything major north of the middle of AR, MS, and AL