Hurricane Isaias

[wx_guy]

1 AM CDT advisory out. Went with 105 mph and 972 mb

 

[N0mz]

It's because of the loads of cirrus clouds that scatter the light nicely

 

[wx_guy]

The eastern wind field is growing quite large.

 

[jvide23]

IR presentation on Isaias jumped considerably fl 114 kts ? That's some quick intensification looked at IR with a symmetric donut around an eye. Raw T# (dvorak) jumped considerably and increase in size of windfield. I'm not an expert but definitely strengthened considerably.

 

[wx_guy]

Yes, the Recon is showing considerable strengthening is happening, and the eye is becoming much more well-defined.

 

[N0mz]

964 dropsonde. Eye is increasingly clearing out, but it probably has 12 hours max before it really gets ripped apart.

 

[wx_guy]

964 dropsonde. Eye is increasingly clearing out, but it probably has 12 hours max before it really gets ripped apart.

Uh...at this point, 18 hours and it'll be onshore, so it may not have time to weaken much really.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Latest hrrrs have strengthen wind gusts inland. 06z showing 60-65 mph gusts for parts of the Birmingham area

 

[UncleJuJu98]

NWS of Birmingham says 50-60mph gusts with potential for widespread downed trees and power lines for our area. Yikes!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This is in kts not mph btw.

 

[N0mz]

Interestingly, the side that will be sheared apart, the south side, is much healthier than the north side right now.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hurricane is category 3 now

 

[wx_guy]

Hurricane is category 3 now

Source? I see some promising signs from Recon, but I see 110 still on NHC website.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Source? I see some promising signs from Recon, but I see 110 still on NHC website.

James spann said in his livestream this morning for his usual weathee briefing.

That its 110mph and will increase to 120mph

 

[wx_guy]

Looks like latest dropsonde measures 958 MB. That should, I think, be enough to warrant a 115 mph upgrade, but we'll see. Recon still investigating.

 

[wx_guy]

Latest Vortex Data Message

326
URNT12 KNHC 091123
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092026
A. 09/10:58:30Z
B. 26.76 deg N 087.76 deg W
C. 700 mb 2770 m
D. 959 mb
E. 125 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C20
H. NA
I. NA
J. 207 deg 102 kt
K. 124 deg 14 nm 10:54:30Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 027 deg 92 kt
O. 301 deg 9 nm 11:01:00Z
P. 15 C / 3042 m
Q. 18 C / 3042 m
R. 2 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF309 1209A ISAIAS OB 18
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 124 / 14 NM 10:54:30Z
;


Should be enough for Cat 3

 

[MBweatherguy]

Latest Vortex Data Message

326
URNT12 KNHC 091123
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092026
A. 09/10:58:30Z
B. 26.76 deg N 087.76 deg W
C. 700 mb 2770 m
D. 959 mb
E. 125 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C20
H. NA
I. NA
J. 207 deg 102 kt
K. 124 deg 14 nm 10:54:30Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 027 deg 92 kt
O. 301 deg 9 nm 11:01:00Z
P. 15 C / 3042 m
Q. 18 C / 3042 m
R. 2 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF309 1209A ISAIAS OB 18
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 124 / 14 NM 10:54:30Z
;


Should be enough for Cat 3

On satellite, where is the wind shear at? Has the storm hit that apart yet?

 

[wx_guy]

On satellite, where is the wind shear at? Has the storm hit that apart yet?

Oh, there's been quite a bit of wind shear its entire life and it's ever-increasing the further north it moves. It's done pretty well for itself and defied some odds I suppose. The shear will increase more today, though, but it's becoming a super thin line between "weakening before landfall" and "oops, the shear didn't stop it fast enough, it made landfall already", the National Hurricane Center even alludes to this in the 5 AM EDT advisory. So it may well be a photo finish to see if this storm weakens substantially or not. I still think 1995 Opal is a great comparison to this one, and Opal cause tremendous damage in the Florida Panhandle.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I have a feeling a corridor from central alabama to south alabama is going to get wacked with some serious power outages and trees down

 

[sak]

Oh, there's been quite a bit of wind shear its entire life and it's ever-increasing the further north it moves. It's done pretty well for itself and defied some odds I suppose. The shear will increase more today, though, but it's becoming a super thin line between "weakening before landfall" and "oops, the shear didn't stop it fast enough, it made landfall already", the National Hurricane Center even alludes to this in the 5 AM EDT advisory. So it may well be a photo finish to see if this storm weakens substantially or not. I still think 1995 Opal is a great comparison to this one, and Opal cause tremendous damage in the Florida Panhandle.

Opal also was sub-920mb and on the verge of being a cat 5 before it lost its punch in the last 12 hours.

don't get me wrong, this will be an impactful storm, but Opal was a good bit more intense than this.