Dat tail though... 
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Hurricane Isaias
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Wow, that is impressive. For those for educated than me, does that mean it's pulling in some moisture for the Caribbean?
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akt1985
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Winds up to 105 MPH, pressure down to 969 MB
Not exactly - it doesn't exactly feed on it - when a hurricane's outflow channel meets an upper low (there's one in the Caribbean), the two flows can set up a narrow axis of confluence and diffluence aloft, and deep convection fires along it. That gives a thin line of cold tops like the one in the image. You can watch it happen on this upper level WV loop.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-08-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
But with that said - yes, winds are absolutely feeding this convection/moisture back into the storm.
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Latest update says we're going to have us a major hurricane within the next few hours
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wx_guy
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Hey everyone! *waves* long time no chat haha
I'll be heavily watching the next 24-48 hours, so I'll try to post here more
On Isaias -- hurry up and get the Recon in there, we desperately need it right now!
For those that may be in the affected areas for Isaias, or general enthusiasts, I've made a site you may find useful -- Tropic Intel
It uses Google's DeepMind AI FNV3 model ensemble to give an intelligence dashboard of sorts. You can put in your zip code or city and get a tailored mini-impact forecast. And it has storm-level analysis and historical analogs. It automatically updates every 6 hours when the Google DeepMind models update. The historical analogs also pull a variety of data historically.
Hope y'all find it useful! I wanted to try and do something a bit different than what else is out there.
I'll be heavily watching the next 24-48 hours, so I'll try to post here more
On Isaias -- hurry up and get the Recon in there, we desperately need it right now!
For those that may be in the affected areas for Isaias, or general enthusiasts, I've made a site you may find useful -- Tropic Intel
It uses Google's DeepMind AI FNV3 model ensemble to give an intelligence dashboard of sorts. You can put in your zip code or city and get a tailored mini-impact forecast. And it has storm-level analysis and historical analogs. It automatically updates every 6 hours when the Google DeepMind models update. The historical analogs also pull a variety of data historically.
Hope y'all find it useful! I wanted to try and do something a bit different than what else is out there.
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Fascinating. And verification that Google Deepmind is becoming a great tool.
slenker
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I'm normally one to appreciate the beauty of storms, but Isaias is not very photogenic. This is a gnarly looking beast, bearing their teeth right now in the face of wind shear. The string of cells on the SE band are crazy too. Ugly storm that will probably bring ugly impacts...
cyelle21
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I am now located in the path of the eye...yay . Hoping it will move further east.
It's (unfortunately) trying its best!
GustFront 66
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Looks more like a derecho rather than a hurricane.
wx_guy
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Recon getting closer to the center...*holds breath*
Cyclonic Paracosm
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I cast tornado
Hurricane models 0Z runs are deepest at 950s with a couple of notable 940s mixed in.
Oof.
HAFS-B dropped a 945, 115.9kts max wind, 6-9 hours from landfall. That would be 133mph, low end Cat 4.
HAFS-A says B isn't that much of an outlier with a 951, 108kts at the same time.
HMON throws out 955 on the same frame, but at 117kts!
Oof.
HAFS-B dropped a 945, 115.9kts max wind, 6-9 hours from landfall. That would be 133mph, low end Cat 4.
HAFS-A says B isn't that much of an outlier with a 951, 108kts at the same time.
HMON throws out 955 on the same frame, but at 117kts!
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wx_guy
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Yeah, the Recon is in with two planes right now. The results are mixed (I think they missed the earlier peak), but 105-110 mph looks still sustained, although pressure may be up slightly to 973 or so.
wx_guy
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Well...latest Recon pass supports 115 mph at flight level, let's see what the dropsonde says in a few minutes.
