Severe WX Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX

[Kds86z]

Day 3 latest

..SOUTHEAST

THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD, ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY, BEFORE SLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST, AND
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OFF
THE GULF, THE ASSOCIATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY TO
DIMINISH.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE RETURN OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG/EAST OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING,
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF MIDDLE/NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS GEORGIA
INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS, WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 70S F PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000+ J/KG, DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES.
COUPLED WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850
FLOW, AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES,
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RISK
FOR TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, 18z hrrr is impressive look for tornadoes on the florida panhandle tomorrow afternoon. I would not be surprised at all for a upgrade

 

[Kds86z]

Yeah, 18z hrrr is impressive look for tornadoes on the florida panhandle tomorrow afternoon. I would not be surprised at all for a upgrade

Day 2 though mentioned reducing probability.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Day 2 though mentioned reducing probability.

Really? Looks impressive to me on the hrrr. But what do I know lol

 

[Kds86z]

Really? Looks impressive to me on the hrrr. But what do I know lol

ORTHEASTERN GULF COAST REGION

THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISAIAS REMAINS UNCLEAR
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST STORM TRACK
AND SPEED, IT APPEARS POSSIBLE, IF NOT PROBABLE, THAT THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT (WITH RESPECT TO STORM MOTION) FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE NEAR-SURFACE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DESTABILIZE. AS THIS APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS PRIOR TO 10/00Z, SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS MAY IMPACT OFFSHORE WATERS.
HOWEVER, IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT NEAR-SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND, PRIOR TO
THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. BARRING A
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES COULD BE REDUCED ACROSS THIS AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS
FOR THIS PERIOD.

CLOSER TO THE TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA VICINITIES, AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, A GRADUAL INLAND BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
ISAIAS. COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SIZABLE
CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, FORCING ASCENT TO THE EAST OF
THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BAND OR
BANDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WITH TRANSIENT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES POSING A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 10/08/2026

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Ozonelayer]

18z HRRR and NAM hold serve. Northern Florida and the gulf coastline near the Big Bend is where I would shift focus to regarding the tornadic activity.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Relatively weak tornado spam evident via CAMs. Outer band does appear to be particularly sloppy in nature and doesn't last thru the night.

Rachel's remnants are going to introduce a very sneaky tornado threat in SW AZ also on Sunday as Isaias dies off and is likely to produce a couple transient tornado producing cells in the Carolinas.


As for next week's trough, let's say i am watching it closely. StormNet has its most prominent long range signal I've seen in a bit. 12Z GFS also had a rather potent outcome for parts of IA/MO, but don't get stirred in yet.

 

[Kds86z]

im actually getting really into tropical weather and forecasting, if theres any resources to learn more about how the tropics work vs. mainland u.s, let me know!

@Atlantic @jackhutwx

 

[Atlantic]

im actually getting really into tropical weather and forecasting, if theres any resources to learn more about how the tropics work vs. mainland u.s, let me know!

I can help out with questions in a PM if you’d like

I wouldn’t say I’m an expert at TCs, because I’m not a certified professional at all, but I do have a lot of understanding about TCs

 

[Kds86z]

 

[slenker]

Relatively weak tornado spam evident via CAMs. Outer band does appear to be particularly sloppy in nature and doesn't last thru the night.

Rachel's remnants are going to introduce a very sneaky tornado threat in SW AZ also on Sunday as Isaias dies off and is likely to produce a couple transient tornado producing cells in the Carolinas.


As for next week's trough, let's say i am watching it closely. StormNet has its most prominent long range signal I've seen in a bit. 12Z GFS also had a rather potent outcome for parts of IA/MO, but don't get stirred in yet.

Runs are flip-flopping quite a bit still, but it is definitely beginning to lean in a direction that warrants attention now. Seeing some nice negative tilts on some individual model runs atm, good timing on some as well. Would be an interesting thing to see October have a solid event that isn’t TC related.

 

[akt1985]

The SPC has removed north Alabama north of U.S. 278 from any severe risk on Saturday.

 

[Ozonelayer]

As for next week's trough, let's say i am watching it closely. StormNet has its most prominent long range signal I've seen in a bit. 12Z GFS also had a rather potent outcome for parts of IA/MO, but don't get stirred in yet.

All i'll say for now is that I agree with this. Will provide my thoughts when the time comes.