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Severe WX Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX

N0mz said:
I'm not sure air over land has properly destabilized yet. These cells keep approaching and really falling apart when they get ~15 miles away from land.
Click to expand...
secret smell GIF


lol. But no for real. They keep dying
 
N0mz said:
I'm not sure air over land has properly destabilized yet. These cells keep approaching and really falling apart when they get ~15 miles away from land.
Click to expand...
Agree. I think what I've said is still true. Tornado threat is severely limited by lack of any proper SB destabiliziation on land. Wild how robust it's been out to land so far but yeah, i don't think this threat on land really begins yet.
 
andyhb said:
Ok I'm sorry, but what is this guy talking about? I feel like he just throws out buzzwords and hopes it sticks half the time from what I've seen of his posts. How is this anything like a SE CO cyclone with a Plains environment?
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Regarding this, i know I'm a bit late but he's pretty knowledgeable at times. I agree though, his wording is extremely technical at times and just makes absolutely no sense either. I scroll thru most of his posts lmao, i don't think they need to be posted on here. He may sound like he has a point but most of his tweets are just complete big word, hyphen spam.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Agree. I think what I've said is still true. Tornado threat is severely limited by lack of any proper SB destabiliziation on land. Wild how robust it's been out to land so far but yeah, i don't think this threat on land really begins yet.
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Mesoanalysis SBCAPE shows it pretty well, pretty much no instability at all inland.
Screenshot 2026-10-09 at 5.05.19 PM.png

Even in 6 hours, it doesn't improve that much, per RAP.
Screenshot 2026-10-09 at 5.05.54 PM.png
 
Similarly to what I said, anything significant should stay limited to the coastline. The peninsula itself has a good bit of CAPE, but the shear isnt as intense there, regardless the tornadic activity might be more realized this band of cells, presuming instability in the panhandle stays basically nonexistent.

Screenshot_20261009_171509_RadarOmega.jpg

Should be noted that once the panhandle gets some SBCAPE, the threat there should intensify.
 
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 677...

VALID 092148Z - 092315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 677 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST AS SUPERCELLS EAST OF THE HURRICANE CORE INTERACT WITH A
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL THIS EVENING ALONG
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COAST (SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR
DETAILS). EAST OF THE INNER HURRICANE CORE, BROKEN BANDS OF
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE FL BIG BEND.
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES NORTHWARD, SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKEWISE
MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS, AS EVIDENCED BY GRADUAL INCREASES IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THESE
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY NEAR
AND A LITTLE INLAND FROM THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE VWP
FROM KTLH SHOWS A LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPH AND ESTIMATED 0-1 KM SRH
HAS ROUGHLY DOUBLED SINCE 19Z WITH LARGELY STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH THE BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BANDS/SUPERCELLS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE FL BIG BEND
AND INTERACTING WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE
WARM FRONT.

TORNADO WATCH 677 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z, BUT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH BY 00-01Z.

..THOMPSON.. 10/09/2026
 
Cells are just struggling to make it on shore. Tor threat really won't kick in unless storms properly manage to sustain.
 
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