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Severe WX Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101700Z - 101830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY
BE NEEDED PENDING STRENGTHENING STORM TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF
ISAIAS' REMNANTS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE, WITH INSOLATION AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO LOW 80S F/MID 70S F
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER LAND,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CONFLUENCE BAND. WITH TIME, CONVECTIVE CELLS
BOTH WITHIN AND PRECEDING THIS BAND SHOULD DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

MLCAPE SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ON A WIDESPREAD
BASIS, AND BE CONSTRAINED TO VERY THIN VERTICAL BUOYANCY PROFILES.
NONETHELESS, AMPLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS PREVALENT WITH
ISAIAS' REMNANTS, WITH REGIONAL VADS STILL SHOWING ENLARGED, CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND OVER 400 M2/S2 OF 0-3 KM SRH. THEREFORE,
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER, PERSISTENTLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
BUT HIGHLY SHEARED AIRMASS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A TORNADO WILL BE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WHICH IS SERVING AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. IF AN
APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH BECOMES EVIDENT, THEN A
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED. I’m
 
Already reports of tornado damage and strong tornado potential increasing:

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 679 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SC/GA BORDER, IN PROXIMITY TO AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT. A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
CONFLUENCE ZONE, WITH REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE NOTED IN
BULLOCH COUNTY GA. THESE SUPERCELLS ARE APPROACHING AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT AS THEY MATURE, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT IN THE ALLENDALE TO BARNWELL COUNTY, SC AREA IN THE NEXT 1-1.5
HOURS. THE CAE VAD CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPH AND
400+ M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH, WITH 200+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH PRECEDING THE
SUPERCELLS IN THE 18Z MESOANALYSIS. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH THESE SUPERCELLS, AND AN EF2 INTENSITY-EQUIVALENT
TORNADO COULD OCCUR AS THESE STORMS APPROACH THE WARM FRONT.

..SQUITIERI.. 10/10/2026
 

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I'll tap my sign again. This was pretty evident days out that today would be the show. I know i said Sunday but today has trended better.
 
Mike S said:
We used to do this years ago. I was never a fan. I kind of like things in one nice, tidy thread myself.
Click to expand...
Tidy being the operative word though - I like them separate, myself - for that same reason.
 
Looking at mesos, the western tornado warning is noticably strong. Could have stronger tornado potential if it continues its intensification.

Also, we might have a tornado OTG near Newington with a ghost-hook and minor debris signiture on reflectivity. CC matches up and so does velocity
 
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