Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX

[Clancy]

The thing is that the more I am looking at model data, I am looking drastically less convinced of a long duration inland tor event here and even more skeptical of anything significant. Time for a "debunking hype" writeup instead.

I'm beginning to see that social media is being a bit too influenced by Milton comparisons when in reality, it's not a good comparison. Look at how pinched this warm sector is after it makes landfall via the GFS (I know but there see other models suggesting this general warm sector size too.)

To add to the climatology here, the Milton event taking place over the Florida Peninsula also made it a vastly different scenario geographically, where you had a very strong storm that was still offshore bringing embedded supercells ashore in an environment with mid-to-upper-70s dews. Just a very different situation in pretty much every aspect. That said, I definitely still see a tornado threat, but not betting on anything particularly potent outside of the immediate coast. Also, model solutions are changing run-to-run, so I feel like it's still way too uncertain to start zeroing in on the caliber and nature of tornado threat.

 

[Ozonelayer]

The Milton analog was also different in other ways too. Milton was, by all means, extraordinary.

With Milton, you had daytime florida instability and humidity interacting with consistant daytime heating, lot of low level shear and a great hodograph allowing for the supercells to produce strong tornadoes even in a more clustered state (Fort Myers PDS is probably the best example of this.) And the non clustered storms produced intense tornadoes (even the offshore storms had intense couplets, arguably more so than even the Fort Pierce HE EF-3)

With this one, you don't have nearly as much instability (meaning storms that, if they arent getting mergers or are being supported by height falls or forcing, will get sheared apart). The daytime heating is pretty limited too (landfall takes place in the early morning hours as of current forcast, Milton didnt make landfall until late afternoon AFTER the main portion of the tornado outbreak) and the inland portion is going to be very, very limited by the pinched warm sector. Like, anywhere from a third to half of these supercells will probably be going through 50-60 F with barely any moisture for support. The coast is really the only part as of now I would watch for sigtor potential day of landfall.

Could it change? Absolutely. 4 days out leaves 96 hours for trends to change.

 

[jackhutwx]

Oh, no, like when he doesn't shitpost, he's solid but I think it's a pretty stupid engagement post to make. Just that's all

I personally follow him, I love his photography and joke posts, he never really posts much about actual weather.

 

[jackhutwx]

im actually getting really into tropical weather and forecasting, if theres any resources to learn more about how the tropics work vs. mainland u.s, let me know!