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Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires

bjdeming

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No major news, but this from RUV just now should be noted:

"Rescue Farmhouse Dog"​

In addition to the warmth, the rescue team has both a large number of blankets and a dog.

This is not your typical rescue farm dog, this is a rescue farm dog. He just comes to the house," says Haraldur about the house dog who was allowed to float along.

"It feels so good to hug him. Especially when it's cold."
 

bjdeming

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For any geonerds here:



That's to say, this, like the December 18th lava, is similar to what has erupted in Fagradalsfjall since 2021 -- what used to be considered an entirely separate volcanic system.

And though it's coming up by the old Sundhnuk crater system, it does not match Sundhnuk lava.

I can't help them ponder but do know that geonerds really have their work cut out for them on this.
 

bjdeming

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Reportedly, mayors of the Reykjanes Peninsula are meeting right now to see if mass aid stations need to be opened, etc.

Morning Paper (mbl) sums up the situation (autotranslated):

The bypass pipes are broken​


mbl.is/Árni Sæberg
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The bypass line along the Njarðvíkuräði has fallen apart. The pipe is under the middle of the lava and broke apart at half past eleven this evening.

In an announcement from HS Orku, it is said that hot water will no longer reach Reykjanesbær.

Presumably the pipe was loosened by the lava flow yesterday morning and late tonight, when water pumping was increased, it seems to have finally broken. The location is under the middle of the lava, in the section where it is the thickest, and therefore it is impossible to undertake repairs there.

No hot water for a few days​

The announcement states that preparations have already begun for the laying of a new pipe in cooperation with the civil defense, but it is clear that the implementation will take a few days.

Exact timings cannot be estimated at this time.

Also without electricity​

There is no electricity in some neighborhoods and town centers on the Reykjanes Peninsula, and it has been since this evening. In Innri-Njarðvík, the electricity went out around 7 p.m.
In Keflavík, the system has reached its limit.

It is imperative to follow the instructions of public safety and HS Veitna regarding response to these difficult and challenging situations.
 

bjdeming

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The "Hail Mary" approach just reported (autotranslated; they expect the next eruption probably in March -- this one is over but hasn't been officially called yet).
 

bjdeming

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They have called it. The next one, if this pattern holds, should be in about three weeks or so.

Meanwhile, as I blogged just now --

This heating loss in Iceland is an absolute catastrophe socially, economically, and politically. Check the linked news sources for that; I will just follow the geological part and, at this point, simply note that this eruption series, thus far, has been tiny and yet it has:

  • Destroyed a major town/fishing port: 1 man died there.
  • Shut down heating for almost 30,000 people on the Reykjanes Peninsula — in winter — with all the associated direct and indirect disruption, cost, and risk.
I hope that it is a case of high initial impacts when an unexpected geological process begins and that Iceland will quickly adjust and learn to take things in stride as the reactivation of the Reykjanes Peninsula plays out over coming years, decades, to perhaps centuries.

--

Again, those links I've found useful are:

  • Icelandic Met Office, (autotranslated).
  • IMO geoscientist notes, (autotranslated).
  • Recent earthquakes (unreviewed)
  • London VAAC
  • RUV (autotranslated front page; they are live at the moment (autotranslated); links may change, so on the front page look for a red box with white dots flashing and please be aware that autotranslation might not carry over when you click it; I use either browser translation or Google Translate online).
  • MBL.is topic page (autotranslated).
  • Visir.is front page (autotranslated)
 

bjdeming

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Also from the blog :):

Per IMO, via Google Translate:

Updated February 12 at 11:15 a.m
Landris continues in the area of Svartsengi. Land is rising by 0.5 – 1.0 cm per day, which is similar to the rate after the last eruption. Magma therefore continues to accumulate in the magma chamber under Svartsengi. There is therefore a high probability that the sequence of events will repeat itself in a few weeks with a new magma flow and eruption.
And in MAJOR good news (autotranslated), the heat is coming on in Sudernes.

How, I don’t know yet — the RUV news just says they welded pipes together. I assume that it is not that plan to build a road over fresh lava and reconstruct the pipeline.

...

Right now they are advising people on what to do and what to watch out for (autotranslated).
 

bjdeming

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Still got my fingers crossed for them but can't resist -- Iceland vs. the volcano:

mbl.is
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    The morning paper

    Domestic | The morning newspaper | 12.2.2024 | 12:12 p.m

122 ton bulldozer reinforces response​

The bulldozer is used in large earthworks.
The bulldozer is used in large earthworks. Photo/Ist
The morning paper

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The contractor company Ístak brought a 122-ton bulldozer to the country on Friday, which will be used, among other things, for the construction of defense walls.

"It will immediately be useful for the work of the defenses," says Karl Andreassen, director of Ístak, in an interview with Morgunblaðið. "It's a great addition to the tools that are out there."

mbl.is/Eythór
The bulldozer, which is a CAT D11, was assembled on Friday and Saturday and will be put into use...

Again -- this sort of stuff does not usually happen during eruptions.
 

bjdeming

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Have to share this, too. Something amazing is also happening quietly up there:

The weekend is cold, but the main challenges are solved​

Bjarki Sigurðsson and Berghildur Erla Bernhardðsdóttir write February 12, 2024 12:03 p.m
Upper row from left: Hafdís Sigurðardóttir and Auður Erla Guðmundsdóttir.  Bottom row from left: Önundur Reinhardtsson and Ásdís Rós Ásgeirsdóttir.
Upper row from left: Hafdís Sigurðardóttir and Auður Erla Guðmundsdóttir. BOTTOM ROW FROM LEFT: ÖNUNDUR REINHARDTSSON AND ÁSDÍS RÓS ÁSGEIRSDÓTTIR.INDEX/EINAR

Residents of Reykjanes say the last few days have been quite cold due to the lack of hot water. However, they face all challenges with great fortitude and manage themselves when it comes to, for example...

-- Source (autotranslated)
 

bjdeming

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No major developments, just a BA image of Iceland's PM and an article (autotranslated) showing that debate continues on the major challenges facing the peninsula.

Of note, they were working on the pipe defenses at eruption time, but it hadn't gotten far enough along to save it.

It was hard to look up at the destruction​

The Prime Minister went today together with the working group and the mayor of Reykjanesbær to the newly laid water pipe. The minister said that it was difficult to look up at the destruction of the eruption.​

Amanda Guðrún Bjarnadóttir
February 12, 2024 at 14:56,updated February 13, 2024 at 01:56
A
A
A
The picture is of Katrína Jakobsdóttir, Prime Minister, in Reykjanes after the eruption on 2/8/24.

Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir at the new water pipe today.
RÚV – Arnór Fannar Rúnarsson

...

Shouldn't these pipes have been protected better?

"Yes, in reality, the works that were to be carried out on this pipeline were far advanced. Therefore, it was possible to start the project as quickly as possible. And all the material was available here, which is not a given," says Katrín Jakobsdóttir.

"But on the other hand, we have to start looking at this for the long term," she adds.
 

bjdeming

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Per mbl.is (autotranslated), they plan to cover the pipes in concrete and then cover them with barrier material.
 

bjdeming

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Haraldur Sigurdsson -- a self-described "voice crying in the wilderness" -- weighs in (autotranslated).

As a counter to one point he mentions (not in debate, as this is for Iceland to decide, but as background), I found, while researching the Decade Volcano eBook, much support for the concept of scientific independence in a volcano crisis, with them advising the civil authorities and political leaders who make the social calls.
 

bjdeming

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The book Volcano Cowboys is a good way to understand why volcanologists went that route -- the social/civil aspects of that 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens apparently were tough on scientists.
 

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Harald is quite accurate, as far as this layperson can tell, in describing his colleagues as some of the profession's top minds (as he is, himself).

Some of them, who are often referred to by their first names, are:

(Kristin's link corrected)
 

bjdeming

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IMO ran the numbers and issued an update -- just a bit more detailed view of likely coming events in a couple of weeks.

Before that, since they also mention Fagradalsfjall, a brief look at the earlier sites of renewed volcanism (the touristy ones, just the other side of the hills from Reykjavik -- here, per IMO, magma is still present but at deeper levels than at Svartsengi and it shows no sign of rising at the moment):



The eerie thing is that this 2021-2023 lava and what has erupted at Svartsengi in 2023-2024 are identical.

IMO's update:

Updated February 15 at 14:00





Landrising in the Svartsengi area continues and its pattern and speed is very similar to what it was after the last magma run from there.


Model calculations based on GPS data from the end of the eruption on February 9 show that magma accumulation until yesterday, February 14, is about 2-3 million cubic meters. It was estimated that when the eruption began on February 8, about 10 million cubic meters ran from Svartsengi into the Sundhnúks crater series. If magma accumulation continues at the same rate, the amount of magma will reach 10 million cubic meters at the end of February or the beginning of March, when it can be assumed that the probability of a magma flow and eruption will increase significantly. These model calculations are based on GPS data but will be updated as new satellite data arrives.


Seismic activity in the area north of Grindavík remains mild, but since Monday, February 12, only small earthquakes of magnitude 1.0 or less have been recorded there.


Seismic activity in the western side of Fagradalsfjall continues, but there have been around 80 small earthquakes, around or below 1.5 in magnitude, since February 12. The depth of the earthquakes under the western side of Fagradalsfjall is constantly around 6-8 km deep. This area will continue to be closely monitored, but at present deformation measurements do not show evidence of magma accumulation...
 

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Grindavik update:

The finance minister's bill for the Treasury to take over Grindavík residents' mortgages was circulated in Alþingi yesterday, after being in the government's consultation portal for several days.

Over 300 reviews were received, 294 from residents and 22 from various associations and organisations.

The bill proposes that real estate be purchased at a price equal to 95% of its fire compensation assessment. The estimated cost is estimated at 61 billion ISK, which is shared among the treasury, lenders and Iceland's Natural Disaster Insurance, NTÍ.

The Ministry of Finance believes that it has to some extent responded to the criticism expressed by residents in their reviews. For example, it must ...

-- Source
 
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