Hurricane Ian

[MattW]

Looks like the eye is clearing out again.

 

[TornadoFan]

WTF

 

[TornadoFan]

Meanwhile, in Naples.

 

[warneagle]

Apparently the Hurricane Hunters got dropped 700 feet by turbulence on the most recent pass through the storm.

 

[warneagle]

Meanwhile, in Naples.

#lifechoices

 

[Blountwolf]

Surge starting to come in on Sanibel.

Live Street Cams | City of Sanibel

www.mysanibel.com

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yes, watching those cameras should be wild.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Captiva and South Sea Island Resort taking it to the chin.

 

[TornadoFan]

The northeastern eyewall is seeing a burst of lightning

 

[sak]

Does someone have a link to surface observations I can look at?

I haven't seen anywhere even gust to hurricane force. I always hear about how hurricane force winds extend out X miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out Y miles... yet it never even comes close to verifying on land.

I get it... where the thing makes landfall will still have tremendous winds... but it seems like a virtual certainty the Tampa/St. Pete area won't see hurricane force sustained winds. I am skeptical they will even gust that high.

 

[Clancy]

 

[Blountwolf]

One important change is that Ian
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
winds on the east coast of Florida.  This necessitates the issuance
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida.  While
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
more baroclinic forcing.  Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
coastal South Carolina.

Ugh. Going to rake across the peninsula.

Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion

 

[TornadoFan]

Wow.

 

[Blountwolf]

Mailbox door hanging on for dear life in Sanibel. (EDIT - looks like this was one of the last shots this cam took. A number of the Sanibel cams went down at once, so I'm guessing power is now out on East Gulf.)

 

[Blountwolf]

Oof. And still a while to go before high tide.

NOAA Tides & Currents - Inundation Dashboard - Hurricane Ian QuickLook

 

[TornadoFan]

Good lord, that eye.

 

[WesL]

Good lord, that eye.
View attachment 15179

Now that is impressive. This is a worst-case scenario in playing out in real-time.

 

[Blountwolf]

Water now coming over Periwinkle on Sanibel. Periwinkle runs right down the spine of Sanibel island, so if it's going under already I expect the whole island will be before long. Looking at the pier cam at Naples, the water is still going parallel to the shore for the most part, so if there is that much rise there on the gauge, I hate to see what this is going to push once the water has nowhere to escape and piles up. This is going to be a big surge. I hope folks are ready for the amount of shore this will impact.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

10% tornado probs out today.