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    Ian
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Hurricane Ian (35 Viewers)

KoD

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Definitely gonna keep a close eye on this.
 

Edith

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Current model guidance is suggesting quite a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. As of tonight the GFS and GDPS are in agreement with the track near the LA coast. The Euro hooks the system more toward the east near Tampa. I think a more likely solution is a blend of the two due to climatology and the fact that cold fronts are making it further south now. I do believe we may have a major hurricane strike along the gulf coast. It is way early in the game and much can change but it certainly is not a good look.
 

Fred Gossage

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The amplitude and placement of the eastern CONUS trough next week on the 00z Euro tonight has trended wholesale toward the GFS solution, especially in comparison to runs from earlier on Wednesday and on Tuesday. Despite still being way east of the GFS and still going into Florida, the 00z Euro has shifted left, with a landfall in the Big Bend of Florida instead of south of Tampa. Looking closely, it seems the differences between the GFS and Euro happen in the first 72-96 hrs. The CONUS pattern mid next week is now almost identical between the two. That tells me that a lot of the final outcome for this system will be determined by now and Saturday/Sunday. The wave skirting South America today, with all the convection being restricted to the southern downshear side because of the northerly wind shear from Fiona, and the overall tendency for disorganized systems to move more left/west in general (because of the low-level trades in the Caribbean and the Coriolis force) would lead me to believe that there is a chance the GFS may be onto the right idea unless there is significant organization within the next 36-48 hours. GFS tended to lead the way with Fiona's more right/easterly track early on compared to the Euro. GFS, despite having a high false alarm rate for genesis of systems in the extended range, has pretty much led the way for the last few seasons in terms of track compared to other models (including the Euro and even the GFS ensembles) once it was working with a system that would develop. There was a statistical report put out about it earlier this year, in fact. Many more 00z GFS ensembles headed left toward the operational idea tonight. The NHC concensus model (TVCN) 06z run, based off the 00z globals, has shifted left and at 168 hrs is south of the MS coast and is pointed NNW, 00z ICON shifted solidly toward the GFS tonight. 18z Euro ensembles had also shifted left today, and the 00z UKMET shifted left tonight. I don't necessarily think the 00z GFS is right with a track into Louisiana (at least yet), but I do think a left lean but within the eastern 1/2 of the Gulf is probably a better idea versus a sharp northeast hook early on.

I'd feel much more confident in a sharper northeast hook earlier on if there was a trough axis west of the system as it comes up. That is not the case. This is just a system turning into a remnant weakness left over behind a departing trough (with upper-level heights actually rising with time in said weakness). That would still allow the northward turn for sure, but those situations usually have a more gradual rightward bend instead of something sharp and fast. Those are also cases where the ridging that fills back into the weakness sometimes trends stronger as we get closer, and it's sometimes a situation where a stronger hurricane can sometimes enhance that from "ridge pumping" with its outflow and subsidence on the outer northern side of the circulation. Climatology supports a right hook and fast northeast turn early on, but that climatology is also driven by those cases happening with troughs that dig down into the western/northern Gulf to grab those systems. This very much isn't that. We'll see what happens...
 
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Fred Gossage

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00z Euro ensembles also continue a leftward nudge, with the ensemble mean almost completely clearing the western tip of Cuba and into the Yucatan Channel. A very significant number of members this run are clustered in the channel, in comparison to the 12z run. All of this is model voodoo until we get a low-level center established, but observational trends with the system's organization the past 24 hours support the model/ensemble trend we've been seeing of a more leftward nudge or full shift in track in the extended.
 

Fred Gossage

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1663831583303.png
Surface observations tonight show a west wind just onshore on the south side of the wave axis. This suggests we may have closed off a surface low along the wave. IF that is indeed the case and it is not just a local microscale feature being depicted, this may be the first signs of better low-level organization despite the shear and convection being mainly on the downshear side of the wave. We would need to watch to make sure these westerly winds actually propagate westward along with the wave axis to confirm that a surface low has closed off. IF that is the case, if we can get some convection to sustain itself near the feature, I could possibly see a tropical depression getting declared within the next 24-36 hours or less. Having said that though, all those conditions above would need to be met in order for that to happen.
 

Blountwolf

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Did NOAA do away with public access to the TCHP maps for the GOM? Not finding it at any of my old links.
 

Fred Gossage

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Did NOAA do away with public access to the TCHP maps for the GOM? Not finding it at any of my old links.
Oceanic Heat Content.jpg
Can't say for sure, but here it is from our Baron Lynx via WeatherBell so you don't have to go looking. It follows a color palette similar to what's been out there all these years. That shade of green that goes up to the FL panhandle coast is the lowest end of traditionally "favorable", and then it goes up from there.
 

Fred Gossage

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After looking at morning guidance, I think between the 12z GFS and the 12z Euro, we have the reasonable western idea and eastern idea on board. 12z GFS would've been closer to Panama City or so for its landfall, but there was an embedded shortwave within the flow back over the MidSouth and TN Valley on approach to hurricane landfall. That allowed the track to bend back NNW to N toward Pensacola to Birmingham. Something like that would be possible but wouldn't be highly evident until 48-72 hrs prior to landfall (or less). Also, the Euro's idea of the system gaining enough latitude in the Caribbean to feel the weakness earlier and cross Cuba into the Florida Keys and go up into southwest Florida is just as possible. The truth is probably somewhere in between. I will say that the overnight GFS idea of Louisiana isn't impossible, but it's unlikely unless the system really struggles to gain any latitude over the next 72 hours or so. The next 48-72 hours may almost fully decide the final landfall outcome of this thing.
 

Blountwolf

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Thanks Fred. Looking for limiting factors for intensity, and well... not finding any help in the Gulf. Pretty much an untapped pool of bathwater.
 

Fred Gossage

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Thanks Fred. Looking for limiting factors for intensity, and well... not finding any help in the Gulf. Pretty much an untapped pool of bathwater.
In terms of the warm water and its depth, it's highly favorable. Also not seeing a strong signs of shear because the upper trough is to the north of the system and acting as ventilation instead of being centered to its west and throwing SW flow aloft over the storm. I do think there might be the potential for dry air entrainment upon approach to landfall, especially if a track more toward the panhandle is correct. It's modeled to be out there around the system in the environment in the mid-levels, but the GFS last night taking the system over the Yucatan caused the inner core to significantly expand because of land interaction. That actually made it harder for dry air entrainment to affect the inner core on its landfall approach. A track through the Yucatan Channel or over the western Caribbean results in not as much prolonged landfall interaction and a smaller inner core. As we know, those smaller systems are more prone to intensity changes and being affected by outside environmental issues.
 

Blountwolf

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Yep. Those that take a jog on to the Yucatan get the expanded core and the channel turbo effect - tends to create monsters as they move into the central gulf. Unimpeded inflow up the channel to the south and east, deep hot water in the gulf, and a bigger core primed to contract and ramp up. On that track, it'll be one we talk about for a while, I expect.
 

Edith

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Looks like the GFS has caved to the Euro and GDPS solutions. Seems the models are saying the cyclone will gain latitude quicker and cross Cuba. Hopefully it gets far enough east where the mountains disrupt the storm. Still a long way to go yet but they all seem to be in agreement with a Florida west coast landfall.
 

mavidal

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Hi All:

Long time hurricane veteran having lived in south fla since 1959 and now relocated to the ft meyers area. Went through the Andrew eyewall and never want to do one of those again.

One thing that I use as a sign is how many birds do you see?

This storm is bothering me a bit. Driving down to naples and back yesterday the volume of birds is non existent. This morning I have seen a flock of ibis, numerous crows and blackbirds, and hear several mockingbirds singing. There is still a dearth of birds in my area. Nature is telling me that this is coming this way but where? Is it going a tad north like pt charlotte or Sarasota, or south of macro? I have already gotten ready as I start my preps early in the season, just need to get gas today and some odds and ends for the weekend.

Anyone in the west coast of FL, do you see a lot of birds in your area?
 

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