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Invest 98L is headed towards the Caribbean.
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Did NOAA do away with public access to the TCHP maps for the GOM? Not finding it at any of my old links.
In terms of the warm water and its depth, it's highly favorable. Also not seeing a strong signs of shear because the upper trough is to the north of the system and acting as ventilation instead of being centered to its west and throwing SW flow aloft over the storm. I do think there might be the potential for dry air entrainment upon approach to landfall, especially if a track more toward the panhandle is correct. It's modeled to be out there around the system in the environment in the mid-levels, but the GFS last night taking the system over the Yucatan caused the inner core to significantly expand because of land interaction. That actually made it harder for dry air entrainment to affect the inner core on its landfall approach. A track through the Yucatan Channel or over the western Caribbean results in not as much prolonged landfall interaction and a smaller inner core. As we know, those smaller systems are more prone to intensity changes and being affected by outside environmental issues.Thanks Fred. Looking for limiting factors for intensity, and well... not finding any help in the Gulf. Pretty much an untapped pool of bathwater.