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Hurricane Ian

mavidal said:
Hi All:

Long time hurricane veteran having lived in south fla since 1959 and now relocated to the ft meyers area. Went through the Andrew eyewall and never want to do one of those again.

One thing that I use as a sign is how many birds do you see?

This storm is bothering me a bit. Driving down to naples and back yesterday the volume of birds is non existent. This morning I have seen a flock of ibis, numerous crows and blackbirds, and hear several mockingbirds singing. There is still a dearth of birds in my area. Nature is telling me that this is coming this way but where? Is it going a tad north like pt charlotte or Sarasota, or south of macro? I have already gotten ready as I start my preps early in the season, just need to get gas today and some odds and ends for the weekend.

Anyone in the west coast of FL, do you see a lot of birds in your area?
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I live in Ocala, which is in Central Florida. I don't claim to be an expert by any means. I believe birds have a God given instinct to feel things you and I cannot! Having said that, I have not noticed many birds this morning. Typically, there is a whole slew of crows, hawks ect at my place of employment. Today, nothing. The only birds I did see flying were heading northeast. Praying it is not too severe of a storm for my neighbors on the coast!
 
Crazy how things are looking so much like Charlie. NHC current landfall locations in Cuba and Florida look good. May see this be a major as it landfalls in Cuba especially if it happens to travel longer over the Gulf of Batabono.
 
It looks like this system will get the dreaded I name as Hermine stole the name this afternoon from a quick forming system off the coast of Africa this afternoon.
 
00z tropical intensity models show as follows:

7am CDT Sunday= tropical storm
7pm CDT Sunday= tropical storm nearing hurricane strength
7am CDT Monday= category 1
7pm CDT Monday= category 2
7am CDT Tuesday= category 3
7pm CDT Tuesday= category 3
7am CDT Wednesday= category 3
7pm CDT Wednesday= weakening
 
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can we just start skipping I names for hurricanes

like, you know how they skip the 13th floor in hotels, just do that
 
GFS also weakening the trough over the CONUS, ejecting it eastward quicker and allowing a ridge to pull Ian further west. We'll have to see if other models trend that way or if they dig the shortwave further south and keep the trajectory around Florida
 
A reminder for those of you on the forecast desk (professionally or as a hobbyist or anything in between) looking at the hurricane spaghetti model plots tonight... The "00z" spaghetti model plots are out now, but they are what is called "early" track guidance. They are run in time for the NHC to use them as guidance before what is typically a 10:00 PM Central Time Zone advisory time for systems (11 pm Eastern and Atlantic Time). They are NOT run off the 00z dynamic global models like the 00z GFS, Euro, etc. They are actually run of the *18z* global dynamic models. That means it's actually the 06z spaghetti model set you are looking for tonight that will have been run off the 00z dynamic global models.

That's important tonight because a NOAA recon mission earlier did a thorough sampling of the upper-level steering environment around Ian, and that data will be ingested in the 00z dynamic models (GFS, Euro, etc.,) and should hopefully give us a better idea of things. Since it will be ingested into the 00z run cycle of the dynamic global models, that data is NOT accounted for in the 00z spaghetti model plots, but it WILL be accounted for in the 06z cycle.
 
Recon data on this flight is suggesting that the center may have reformed closer to 14.2N, a good 0.5 deg south of where the latest advisory had it. Short-term things like this don't always trickle down to long-term changes, but I would expect more changes to guidance over the next 24-48 hours, regardless of whatever is shown tonight.

1664081253038.png
 
1664084302487.png
Latest pass shows it has slipped down to 13.9N. It was at 14.2N on the initial pass earlier. I think, instead of a movement south like that, it's still just messy and befuddled in there. Any mid-level center should be near the mid 14's latitude, based on satellite motion.
 
1664088097565.png
It seems there have been multiple low-level swirls, but recon did find the low-level circulation that NHC had been tracking at 14.7N, and that is around the area where new convection has been developing and better matches the northward placement of any mid-level center when compared to those low-level swirls farther south. Things are still loosely organized, but if this deep convection can keep expanding in the hours ahead, that should change.
 
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