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Hurricane Ian

akt1985

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As of the 5AM Eastern advisory, it looks like the NHC is calling for Ian to make landfall in Taylor County in Florida’s Big Bend overnight Thursday night but rapidly weaken to a Category One upon landfall due to a lot of dry air intrusion behind the front. Honestly, storm surge might be the biggest issue rather than wind.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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Last night's EURO was a 954-957mb landfall Wednesday afternoon in Longboat Key, FL.
 

TornadoFan

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Big burst of convection around the center. Latest NHC advisory has Ian as a 60 mph storm with pressure down to 991mb.
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Fred Gossage

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We now have Hurricane Ian. Inner core convection is rapidly exploding on satellite the past hour or so. Forecast max intensity in the southeastern Gulf now raised to 140 mph on this advisory package.
 

MattW

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Are the models having trouble resolving what will happen after Cuba, due to the storm's interaction with Cuba?
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It seems right after crossing Cuba, the tracks go haywire.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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A lot of wobbles on the forecast track.
 

Blountwolf

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warneagle

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Yeah once the eye clears out we're gonna be off to the races here. The western tip of Cuba is gonna be in for a rough time. It doesn't look like whatever land interaction it has with Cuba is going to hurt it much either. Hopefully the forecast dry air/wind shear in the eastern Gulf holds up and spares Florida the worst of it.
 

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Latest advisory has bumped the sustained winds up to 100 MPH. So that would make it a category 2 now.
 

Fred Gossage

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Yeah once the eye clears out we're gonna be off to the races here. The western tip of Cuba is gonna be in for a rough time. It doesn't look like whatever land interaction it has with Cuba is going to hurt it much either. Hopefully the forecast dry air/wind shear in the eastern Gulf holds up and spares Florida the worst of it.
It's very low, flat, and marshy across the far western tip of Cuba. We've had several storms over the years go across that portion and not have any interruption at all. A couple of the years have even intensified across it because of the "brown water effect" of the marshy terrain and how that still provides warm water to work with.
 

warneagle

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It's very low, flat, and marshy across the far western tip of Cuba. We've had several storms over the years go across that portion and not have any interruption at all. A couple of the years have even intensified across it because of the "brown water effect" of the marshy terrain and how that still provides warm water to work with.
I actually haven't heard of the brown water effect, that's interesting. Are there other places that do that? Like the Everglades or something?
 
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