Hurricane Hurricane Michael

[Kory]

Weird statement by the NHC about an ERC signature via radar. But no double wind maxima was shown by the recon.

 

[South AL Wx]

 

[Evan]

Weird statement by the NHC about an ERC signature via radar. But no double wind maxima was shown by the recon.

And that potential outer eyewall on radar has died out over the past few radar frames anyway.

Edit: I spoke too soon. Latest radar definitely shows something funny occurring with the eyewall.

 

[Kory]

Pressure continues dropping. I don’t think this is a ERC.

 

[Kory]

Extreme wind warning now issued by TAE.

I remember when they just used tornado warnings prior to EWW. Talk about confusing.

 

[Kory]

Looks like a slight jog northward. That northern eyewall is intense. Watch out Panama City.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Pressure continues dropping. I don’t think this is a ERC.

It only looks like it’s improving. Wow, this is going to be devastating. All things are about to get dismantled.

 

[South AL Wx]

Wow. Extrapolated pressure of 919.9 mb.

 

[Evan]

Pressure continues dropping. I don’t think this is a ERC.

I don't think it is an ERC, either. But what I do see is an eyewall that looks BETTER than it ever has and an increase in the size of the eyewall wind fields. I don't think the suggestion that it might limit or stop Michael from further strengthening is going to end up being the result of whatever you want to call what is happening with the eyewall per radar.

We are in uncharted territory.

 

[Evan]

Wow. Extrapolated pressure of 919.9 mb.

Seriously?

 

[South AL Wx]

Seriously?

From the latest AF recon:

 

[Kory]

Would make it stronger than Andrew if it landfalls at that pressure.

 

[South AL Wx]

Dropsonde in the eye recorded a pressure of 925 mb with 17 kts of winds. So the actual pressure is probably somewhere between 923-924 mb.

 

[Lori]

Feels like the morning of April 27th basically.

I was thinking the same thing!


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[Daryl]

 

[South AL Wx]

Up to 150 mph now:

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).

 

[KoD]

Days ago I thought the models were bullish putting Michael to 950mb, now here we are at nearly 920mb. This is an incredible storm. I hate that people along the coast didn't get a longer lead time, there's going to be a lot of folks trying to ride this out.

 

[Kory]

As I said earlier, the damage is gonna look like Andrew.

 

[Lori]

I don't think it is an ERC, either. But what I do see is an eyewall that looks BETTER than it ever has and an increase in the size of the eyewall wind fields. I don't think the suggestion that it might limit or stop Michael from further strengthening is going to end up being the result of whatever you want to call what is happening with the eyewall per radar.

We are in uncharted territory.

Met David Paul WTVY
As of 9:41, the eye of Hurricane Michael is about 44 miles from Panama City Beach. Landfall is likely in the 1 pm hour with devastating winds. Conditions will deteriorate in the Wiregrass after 2 pm, with the worst impacts from 4-10 pm.

The irregular eye structure is being produced by multiple micro-scale eddies inside the eye. This is a hallmark of powerful hurricanes. Those eddies are much like tornadoes and can produce enhanced damage when they swirl around the eyewall. Fascinating science with catastrophic impacts. Our beloved coastline is hours away from being forever changed. -David


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[BayouWeatherGeek]

Extreme Wind Warning for the panhandle