Hurricane Hurricane Michael

[South AL Wx]

How do you know the pressure is lowering?

Recon is in the storm.

 

[vanni9283]

Is there really a difference at this point whether it makes landfall as a Cat 4 or a Cat 5???

 

[Kory]

How do you know the pressure is lowering?

The last recon dropsonde. They did one final pass...

 

[Kory]

Is there really a difference at this point whether it makes landfall as a Cat 4 or a Cat 5???

Impacts wise...probably not. For the record books....yes.

 

[Kory]

No way Panama City escapes this. I dread to see what this does to the high rise condos.

 

[Kory]

 

[vanni9283]

That eyewall looks to be tightening!!!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Anyone got anything from Mexico Beach?

 

[vanni9283]

Waiting for the 1pm advisory.

 

[Kory]

I don't think there are many superlatives to describe what we are seeing right now.

 

[vanni9283]

Another livestream courtest of Mike Theiss: https://www.pscp.tv/w/1mnxeopjyNWGX?t=6m8s

 

[Kory]

143 kt flight level wind. OMG.

 

[warneagle]

Upgraded to an enhanced risk and 10% tornado probability across the cone in GA/FL/SC.

 

[vanni9283]

143 kt flight level wind. OMG.

That might push it into the Cat 5 plateau!

 

[South AL Wx]

Latest from NHC. Official pressure is 919 mb:

...12 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF MICHAEL COMING ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE...

With the landfall of Michael's eye imminent, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

A weather station at the Gulf County Emergency Operations Center in
Port St. Joe recently reported a wind gust of 106 mph (171 km/h).
A Weatherflow station is St. Andrew Bay recently reported a
sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 mph (124
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported sustained winds
of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust of 89 mph (143 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

 

[South AL Wx]

That might push it into the Cat 5 plateau!

Not based on that alone. The 143 kt flight level wind would correspond to about 150 mph at the surface, the current NHC intensity.

 

[vanni9283]

Mexico Beach, FL

 

[vanni9283]

Same winds on new advisory, down to 919mb though.

 

[warneagle]

Already 6.5' of storm surge inundation in Apalachicola, which is a record.

 

[Kory]

Gust to 130 mph at Tyndall.