Hurricane Erin

[Kds86z]

 

[lake.effect]

Looks due west to me over the last 2 or 3 hours.
Chances of a US landfall are still slim but the impacts are getting higher with each western shift in the models and each westward jog in obs

 

[Kds86z]

 

[wx_guy]

So it looks like I was wrong and recon will be in the storm within 90 minutes. My guess when they get in there:

170 mph winds
905 mb pressure


#lockitin

 

[tornado examiner]

Looks like recon may miss peak intensity

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

Gotta love these west pacific typhoons.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

yes whoop whoop indeed

 

[tornado examiner]

Gotta love these west pacific typhoons.
View attachment 46111

(Looks at zoom earth) (surprise pikachu face)

 

[wx_guy]

Next Recon just departed. Should have data coming in within 45 minutes.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

has there ever been a tropical storm that big as a typhoon but not a typhoon since it is over the atlantic and not the west pacific what would it be called or would it still be called a typhoon because of its size

 

[tornado examiner]

Recon is finally out. But I don’t know if it’ll make it to Erin before weakening occurs. Or if peak intensity has already occurred.

 

[wx_guy]

5 PM advisory is out, keeps things at current levels but mentions they believe it is probably weakening. We'll see!

They've also issued TS Watches for the Turks and Caicos islands.

 

[tornado examiner]

Unless the eye stabilizes I’d say peak intensity only has a few hours left. Maybe less than that. The eye is so tiny now.

 

[tornado examiner]

That’s annoying. Erin’s peak forecasted intensity has been reduced to 160max instead of 165mph.
And Erin is likely weakening now.
Eye has almost completely collapsed and an EWRC is likely happening now. Recon was too late this time.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

genuinely wow, just wow this is insane, so cool to look at

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

That’s annoying. Erin’s peak forecasted intensity has been reduced to 160max instead of 165mph.
And Erin is likely weakening now.
Eye has almost completely collapsed and an EWRC is likely happening now. Recon was too late this time.

nhc does state that erin will stay a C5 for about 24hrs, will prob just tick right back up later

 

[tornado examiner]

nhc does state that erin will stay a C5 for about 24hrs, will prob just tick right back up later

Is it a likelyhood for it to regain cat 5 intensity after the EWRC? I guess it could but it won’t reach its peak again.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]