Hurricane Erin

[joshoctober16]

For those that are on X, there's this cool graphic.

im wondering if the core of the storm is being tugged southwest ish by the blob that is to its south west.

 

[Kds86z]

Because we had expectations of it, and it decided to throw them out the window and do what it wants.

Yeah 12 hours is insane

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

And on this date..

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[wx_guy]

Latest pass has it down to about 913 mb

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[wx_guy]

2 PM advisory officially has it at 160 mph and 915 mb, and both recons are done now, so it'll be a while before we're able to see what's going on inside.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[majorhurricane1703]

A move back to the west may be resuming. We’ll see.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

gah damn man, wicked. love this app so much

 

[tornado examiner]

Erin’s eye is being squashed

 

[majorhurricane1703]

I watched an interesting video this morning that if Erin encounters shear by getting too far west that it may be steered even farther west by that. I wonder if that is what we could be starting to possibly see start to unfold again.

 

[wx_guy]

The 24-hour errors from the official track have generally been decently good, but they're now 66 nautical miles too far north, as today's westward jog is taking the official forecast by surprise somewhat. I'll avoid them for brevity, but even the HAFS-A and HAFS-B are too far north 24-hours lagged, by about 30-35 nautical miles.





The HAFS-A intensity error 24-hours lagged is shown below, of course showing how under modeled the RI was. Other models show similar or worse error.






The track versus the NHC Cone 3 days ago:




And the track versus 24 hours ago and 12 hours ago show it is outside the Cone altogether, to the South.










4 days out, really the only people currently that need to watch for trends is Bermuda, but with the forecast trending on the south and west side of the cone, I'd be less concerned about them and increasingly watchful over in the Outer Banks.




Going out 5 days, Nova Scotia will have to watch and interestingly, the New England states will need to watch as well for trends. Looks very unlikely, but watch trends.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[majorhurricane1703]

️ If this continues to trend strong the ridge and the trough continues to lift out more the northeast could have a problem. Still extremely unlikely, but whenever I see ridge trending stronger and trough lifting out it’s definitely got my attention.

 

[wx_guy]

Anyone know when the next recon will be in the storm? Looks like the eye wall replacement cycle that was starting earlier FAILED (meaning on replacement, no weakening) and it looks like it's continuing to strengthen. I really hope we don't miss the peak because of plane scheduling.

 

[wx_guy]

Anyone know when the next recon will be in the storm? Looks like the eye wall replacement cycle that was starting earlier FAILED (meaning on replacement, no weakening) and it looks like it's continuing to strengthen. I really hope we don't miss the peak because of plane scheduling.

To answer my own question, best I can tell, they have planes departing around 7:30 PM tonight into the storm. Such a long wait ugh.

EDIT: I appear mistaken.