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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Hurricane Erin

KakashiHatake2000 said:
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heaven GIF
 
Looks like perhaps Erin is down to a 145-150 mph Cat 4 with pressure around 930 mb. Two recon planes have sampled nearly the same thing. Looks like an eye wall replacement cycle is ongoing. It should have time for a second peak later tonight or in the morning/tomorrow.
 
wx_guy said:
Looks like perhaps Erin is down to a 145-150 mph Cat 4 with pressure around 930 mb. Two recon planes have sampled nearly the same thing. Looks like an eye wall replacement cycle is ongoing. It should have time for a second peak later tonight or in the morning/tomorrow.
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Indeed, 8 PM advisory has it at 150 mph and 934 mb. Says it's moving due west and still hugging 20 N.
 
wx_guy said:
Indeed, 8 PM advisory has it at 150 mph and 934 mb. Says it's moving due west and still hugging 20 N.
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Erin is definitely being stubborn to go on any consistent west northwest track as it is clearly moving west now. Will only need to take another 1-2 shifts with the Euro expanding the high west and the trough receding for it to bring this dangerously close if not over the northeast. I think North Carolina is safe, but what happens after the mid latitudes is a more complex setup that I don’t think the models are prepared for yet. What makes this maybe different than other years is the North Atlantic is warmer than the south, which is likely not as common for model data put into the computers. Makes me wonder if unusual things could occur even though chances are they won’t.
 
Okay, the 0z Best Track info is in, and here's the latest results from my tool...

First up, the GFS error the past 5 days:

1755391614883.png


And the Official forecast error the past 5 days:

1755391676493.png



Fun story, the ICON has actually done better on intensity than the Official forecast:

1755391758375.png


Versus the Official 5-day error on intensity:

1755391809526.png



The Cone error 2 days ago at this time versus actual track:

1755391858157.png



The Cone from last night:

1755391893163.png




Using the 5-year historical error percentiles, it looks exceedingly unlikely that the Outer Banks are at risk, with the error needing to be in about the 96th percentile of errors, deviating from the forecast point by about 340 nautical miles to the West. Not impossible, but very, very unlikely.

1755391985849.png



For Alert levels, Bermuda still needs to watch trends, and the Outer Banks is close to the watching trends also. This is for 4 days out.

1755392082300.png


For 5 days out, Nova Scotia and New England also need to watch trends. New England it's very unlikely also, but not impossible. Nova Scotia it's a little more likely.

1755392139384.png
 
Looks like it's resumed its northward component to its movement finally. At about 20.2 N now.
 
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