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Hurricane Erin

This system does not want to move north much as shifts continue west. I’m really wondering if models will get the timing of the northeast trough wrong if the northward turn delays by any amount. They struggled with how fast the trough in the northeast Atlantic lifted out having to adjust so any delay in that and if Erin is close to the Outer banks can easily bring impacts to the northeast. I think the model errors are getting overlooked some. I mean the shape of the trough could easily be less sharp as well. Yes as we know it is a very improbable scenario, but I argue if there is going to ever come a time where a system does something completely shocking against common thought and modeling, this is going to be it.
 
Looks like we won't get recon in tonight as Erin restrengthens. The one plane going in turned around and went back for some reason.
 
First time watching the tropics. And wooh boy this is a heck of a first storm to watch.

Erin keeps tracking more westwardly than excpected. This (Obviously) puts the mainland United States at a higher risk. But is there a chance that it does make landfall? I don't know too much about hurricames, I'm more knowledgable about tornadoes.
 
Ozonelayer said:
First time watching the tropics. And wooh boy this is a heck of a first storm to watch.

Erin keeps tracking more westwardly than excpected. This (Obviously) puts the mainland United States at a higher risk. But is there a chance that it does make landfall? I don't know too much about hurricames, I'm more knowledgable about tornadoes.
Click to expand...

Probably not directly, but I’m going to say this. There are some things that raise red flags on satellite I’m looking at that bears close watching.

First that trough in the mid Atlantic is not digging down far enough south as of yet nor amplifying like the models expect. Second the dry air stream you see to the north of Erin is currently creating a stronger area of high pressure than what models are thinking at this current time. In the very unlikely event this continues where the trough doesn’t amplify or continues to delay digging down for another 12-24 hours, the U.S. (in particular the northeast especially) could have problems.
 
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